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What expatriates bring

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Can global coordination stabilise food price volatility?

The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) Food Price Index,a monthly measure of food price changes, averaged 127.2 points in April 2023. This is down 31.2 points (19.7%) from April 2022 [1].

Unlocking the potential of the anywhere economy

The ability to work, socialise, and conduct personal and business activities online presents endless possibilities. Our understanding of its impacts on businesses, economies and the planet is still evolving. Our study shows that, overall, both executives and consumers are confident that the anywhere economy will improve economic conditions and personal lives. They also believe that embedding digitalisation in daily life can help overcome some of the inequities of modern life and accelerate the planet’s decarbonisation process.

Understanding the economic consequences of the covid-19 pandemic

The covid-19 pandemic cannot be seen solely as a global health crisis; the impact on the health, livelihoods and functioning of individuals and global economies deems it a humanitarian and economic crisis. It is estimated that an additional half a billion people have fallen into poverty due to the pandemic [1].

Balancing government budgets amid uncertainty

The past three years have given rise to a series of shocks that have affected geopolitics and global economics. Developments such as the US-China trade tensions, the covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine are weighing heavily on governments’ budgets. Government responses to such shocks have led to public borrowing and spending on an unprecedented scale. Traditional government budgetary processes have also been upended in response to these shocks, leading to more agility, but less transparency.

Cooperation in a fragmented world—why the signs are not encouraging

Cooperation in a fragmented world was the theme of this year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. While cooperation was high on everyone’s agenda, there was a realisation that ongoing fragmentation was a genuine concern for the global economy. As many conversations focused on sustainability, inclusion and digitalisation, efforts are complicated by increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

After many panels, roundtables and discussions at Davos, here are my three key takeaways from this year’s WEF:

The impact of China’s reopening on global supply chains

China remains the dominant manufacturing hub globally in 2023 and has been for the past ten years. So, any reshaping of supply chains due to their reversal of the zero-covid policy will not happen overnight due to the complexity that has been built up over the last decade, with China at the epicentre.

The outlook series: what to watch in FDI in 2023

It will be a difficult year for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Despite the nascent recovery in global FDI flows that followed the covid-19 shock, momentum slowed in 2022 [1]. With the global economy facing recession in several key markets—due to high inflation, rising interests and the war in Ukraine—FDI will likely see another subdued year in 2023. However, the macroeconomic outlook is not the only deterrent to FDI flows.

The outlook series: key trends in trade—2023

Although trade is still expected to grow in 2023, the outlook is worse than 2022. The global economy is still facing multiple headwinds, including the war in Ukraine and the perpetual US-China tensions.

The WTO initially estimated that global merchandise trade would grow by 3.4% in 2023. This has been revised down by 2.4 percentage points accounting for both demand and supply side shocks [1].

The outlook series: inclusive finance—a roadmap for the next decade

 It will be another challenging year for the global economy in 2023. The long-lasting effects of covid, macroeconomic shocks and geopolitical risks will likely lead to a global recession. Like most crises, the poor will be  disproportionately affected. The World Bank estimates that by the end of 2022, as many as 685 million people will be living in extreme poverty [1].

Growth amid uncertainty: Strategising for growth in the US Market

The US is one of the most attractive markets for exporters and investors worldwide, and not without reason. US consumer spending, despite high inflation rates causing it to cool a little, still represents around 70% of its economy.[1] The US consumer base is also very diverse, so there is demand for a vast range of products and services, opening up investment opportunities across all sectors and industries.

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