As the health and economic impacts of the covid-19 crisis unfold, it is easy to lose sight of longer-standing sources of uncertainty that companies face. In the Greater China region (comprising mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan), business leaders were already grappling with heightened trade volatility, talent shortages, rapid technology advances and the ever-changing behaviours of consumers. The pandemic has naturally pushed management’s attention to shorterterm survival and recovery. But businesses in the region know the need to address more familiar challenges cannot take a back seat for long. If anything, the pandemic crisis has added propellant to the trends driving them rather than freezing them in place.

Changes in customer behaviour—and by extension to markets—pose as much near-term uncertainty to Greater China executives surveyed by The Economist Intelligence Unit as do concerns about the pandemic. Over the longer term, the difficulties of securing and retaining talent cause the greatest degree of management unease, along with changes in customer behaviour, technology and market structure. Alongside some predictable measures of retrenchment, such as reducing headcount and postponing expansion plans, many surveyed firms say they are proactively implementing measures to increase their scalability, speed and efficiency.

Other major findings of the study are:

Amidst gloom, pockets of optimism. Hopes for business improvement this year are low across the Greater Bay Area (Hong Kong, Macau and Guangdong). Spirits are higher in Taiwan, and markedly so on the mainland. Around half (49%) of executives in mainland tier 1 (T1) and 62% in tier 2 (T2) expect industry conditions to improve in the coming months. Almost all respondents in T1 cities (96%, and 80% in T2 cities) express confidence in their firms’ ability to grow revenue in the next 12 months. Improving scalability is high on the agenda. About half of business leaders (49%) believe workforce rigidity holds back the implementation of their business strategy. To address this, the majority of respondent firms (77%) plan to increase their use of temporary or shortterm workers in the coming months. Nearly the same number say they will undertake some form of organisational restructuring and will consolidate work locations. Staff-sharing—a practice launched during the lockdown—is likely to help firms deal with future periods of volatility. Even pessimists are keeping their options open. Among the roughly 20% of respondent firms that expect business conditions to worsen in the next 12 months, only about one-third plan to reduce their spending on technology and research and development (R&D) while around one-sixth plan to increase it. Another 42% will “reorganise their workspace”, which includes redesigning, consolidating or moving offices or other work locations. Remote working is here to stay. Workers will return to their offices as the pandemic crisis recedes, but working remotely is likely to be much more commonplace. More than three-quarters of respondent firms (76%) plan to implement work-from-home and work-from-anywhere practices during the next 12 months, leveraging capabilities such as cloud computing and mobility technology.

 

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随着新冠肺炎危机对健康和经济的影响不断显现，企业所面临的更长远的不确定性因素很容易被忽略。在大中华地区（中国大陆、香港、澳门和台湾），商界领导者早已在努力应对贸易波动加剧、人才短缺、技术飞速发展以及消费者行为的不停变化。这次疫情自然会促使管理层专注于短期内的业务的存活和和恢复，但是管理者也知道与此同时更应加强面对那些类似的长期商业挑战。宏观来说，那就是这次疫情危机反而更会促使企业加快采取行动，而不是被动应对。

对经济学人智库调研的大中华区高管而言，消费者行为的变化、以及相应的市场变化带来的近期不确定性，与对全球疫情的担忧所造成的不确定性同等重要。从长期来看，最让管理层感到不安的是难以获得人才和保留人才，还有客户行为、技术和市场结构的变化。除了采取裁员和推迟扩张计划等可以预见的紧缩措施外，许多受访公司表示正在积极采取行动，提升可伸缩性、速度和效率。

本研究的其他主要成果包括：

市场低迷之中的转折亮点。整个粤港澳大湾区（香港、澳门和广东，简称：大湾区）对今年业务有起色的期望较低，台湾地区的情绪较为乐观，而中国大陆则信心充足。大陆一线和二线城市的高管当中，约有一半（49%）预计未来几个月行业状况会有所改善。几乎所有一线城市的受访者（96%，二线城市为80%）都表示对公司在未来12个月实现营收增长有信心。 提升灵活性是当务之急。大约半数的公司领导者（49%）认为，刚性的劳动力结构阻碍了企业战略的实施。为了解决这一问题，大多数受访公司（77%）计划在未来几个月内增加使用临时员工或短期合约员工。几乎同等比例的公司表示将进行某种形式的组织重组以及办公室地点调整。在疫情隔离封锁期间，有些公司采取“员工共享”的做法或许可以帮助公司应对未来更多不确定性。 多种预防性应付方案的准备。大约20%的受访公司预计未来12个月内经营状况将会恶化，其中只有三分之一左右的公司打算减少技术和研发的支出，而约六分之一的公司则计划增加支出。另外还有42%的公司将“重组工作空间”，包括重新设计、整合或迁移办公室或其他场所。 远程工作将成常态。随着疫情逐渐消退，员工将重返办公室，但远程工作可能变得更为普遍。超过四分之三的受访公司（76%）计划在未来12个月内、利用云计算和移动技术等实施居家办公和移动办公制度。

It is well established that the modern CFO has a more strategic role to play in a business, but a clear action plan to achieve this is lacking. A key element of this is helping the business to deal with change. Some changes are planned: launching a new product or service, setting up operations in a new region or acquiring a competitor. Others may be unexpected: a major disruption to supply-chain operations, the emergence of new regulation and legal reporting requirements or the unpredictable impacts of global economic uncertainty.

Either way, when asked about the biggest challenges they face in executing their day-to-day activities, change is a recurring theme, according to a new survey of 800 CFOs and senior finance executives, conducted by The Economist Intelligence Unit. Managing unexpected changes to financial forecasts and adapting finance processes to rapidly evolving business models are top of mind.

Managing unexpected changes to financial forecasts and adapting finance processes to rapidly evolving business models are top challenges finance executives face in executing their day to-day activities.

Finance executives are also concerned with identifying how to align strategic, financial and operational plans towards common objectives and meaningfully analysing data across business units and regions. “All functions are working to meet these challenges and, as a finance head, we have to have visibility across all functions, how they are progressing [towards meeting goals] and ensuring that their direction is in line with overall strategic goals,” says Lalit Malik, CFO of Dabur, an Indian consumer goods manufacturer. It is incumbent upon CFOs therefore to be prepared not only to help their own function navigate uncharted territory, but the rest of the business too. That means breaking down the silos that commonly exist in organisations, in order to collaborate closely across functions, sharing information and data in the pursuit of common objectives.

All functions are working to meet these challenges and, as a finance head, we have to have visibility across all functions, how they are progressing [towards meeting goals] and ensuring that their direction is in line with overall strategic goals - Lalit Malik, CFO of Dabur, an Indian consumer goods manufacturer.

The clear custodian of collaboration

There are a number of reasons why the role of leading cross-company collaboration around steering should fall to the CFO and their team. First, through the activities of budgeting, the finance function is the custodian of the clear, quantitative expression of management expectations and determines how resources such as cash and people will be allocated in order to achieve them. In our survey, 90% of respondents say that finance should facilitate collaborative enterprise planning to ensure that operational plans are aligned with financial and strategic plans.

Second, through performance management, the finance function is the gatekeeper for critical data that illustrate how well—or otherwise—the company is rising to the challenge of change. That includes data relating to sales, supply chain and delivery, which need to be reported back to the business in ways that help drive improved decisionmaking. Our survey reveals that companies in which finance executives feel empowered to drive strategic decisions across business functions are more likely to report a higher financial performance in fiscal year 2016/17 and 2017/18 and anticipate higher growth rates for 2019/20.

 

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