Technology & Innovation

Executive summary

October 10, 2014

Global

October 10, 2014

Global

“Hyperconnectivity” is a term that describes a defining feature of contemporary society

“Hyperconnectivity” is a term that describes a defining feature of contemporary society. 

Thanks to the Internet, mobile technology and increasingly the Internet of Things, people, places, organisations and objects are linked together like never before.

More than a technological trend, hyperconnectivity is a cultural condition to which businesses have no choice but to adapt. But what does is it mean for companies, industries and consumers?

This document summarises a new report, written by The Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by SAP, that provides insight into the economic impact of hyperconnectivity and how businesses are beginning to adapt to it.

Key findings include:

The Internet is worth more to the global economy than more traditional industries such as agriculture or energy.

Estimates of the Internet’s contribution to GDP vary, but the consensus is that it was worth more than 3.4% of major economies’ GDP by 2010-11 and that it is growing fast: by 2016 the value of the Internet is expected to double from 2010 levels. That makes it a major part of the global economy, and it has a pronounced impact on economic growth rates.

One consultancy calculates that the Internet contributed 20% of GDP growth across 13 major economies in 2004-09, with the European Commission saying that information and communications technology (ICT) accounted for one-third of the EU’s growth in 1995-2007. That is testament to the vital role that hyperconnectivity plays in modern society.

Continued adoption of the Internet and mobile technology will benefit all economies, but will be especially valuable to developing countries.

Well under half of the world’s population has Internet access, and the economic and social benefits of wider usage will be dramatic: industry research suggests that if developing economies increased their Internet penetration to rich world levels, GDP growth rates would surge by 72% and 140m new jobs would be created. Just as important, millions of lives would be saved through improved healthcare and hundreds of millions of people would be lifted out of extreme poverty.

There is also strong evidence that increasing smartphone usage can add to economic growth, with many emerging markets already using mobile phones extensively for everything from banking to business information. Developing countries need to spend heavily on infrastructure to realise the Internet’s potential, but the rewards on offer are big.

The economic impact of the Internet of Things has yet to be determined.

Hyperconnectivity is set for explosive growth, with the number of connected things (excluding PCs, tablets and smartphones) expected to increase thirtyfold between 2009 and 2020. At company level, there is already some strong evidence of the cost savings available from, for example, smart manufacturing, with individual firms such as General Motors, the US car-maker, reporting some big cost advantages.

However, take-up remains slow, and it could take decades for the possible advantages, such as efficient production and highly targeted marketing campaigns, to materialise. That means it is too early to quantify the final benefits, although few doubt that a profound shift is under way.

While good news on a macroeconomic scale, hyperconnectivity challenges individual businesses.

The rise of hyperconnectivity has already hit some industries hard: the bulk of book and music sales is now made online, for example, driving a host of traditional retailers to the wall and causing problems everywhere from the newspaper to the music industry as their customers desert them. Many more industries will be forced into fundamental change in coming years, as newly connected consumers are offered alternatives to everything from car rental to pricey hotels. That will push many, if not most, companies to adapt their businesses to live with the new technology and choice coming online. Some will fail the test, but others will be able to expand their offerings. The sportswear maker Nike, for example, has launched a website and online services to accompany its wearable fitness devices, using the brand built up by selling trainers to become a much wider lifestyle adviser.

Hyperconnectivity promises to blur the lines between different business sectors. That will cause plenty of problems for companies but will allow the adaptable to thrive.

Hyperconnectivity has accelerated globalisation but could also feed the return of manufacturing to developed countries.

The impact of hyperconnectivity on manufacturing, and indeed on global service provision, has long been evident: designs produced by expensive staff in developed countries can easily be produced in low-cost countries such as China.

That has fed a massive flight of manufacturing to developing countries, along with service provision from, for example, low-cost call centres in India.

A more recent shift is that even smaller companies have been able to set up multinational supply chains and customer bases, until recently the preserve of big companies, leading to the formation of so-called “micro-multinationals”. In the longer term, however, the extreme automation allowed by hyperconnectivity could lead to production returning to leanly staffed plants in expensive developed countries, something that is already evident in the opening of new car and computer plants in the US as manufacturing returns from China.

More than just a platform for economic activity, hyperconnectivity is a new cultural environment for all human behaviour.

Its impact on that behaviour is still unfolding, and businesses must be sensitive to shifting social values and customer expectations as it continues to evolve. The final impact remains uncertain: on the one hand, there is no evidence that hyperconnectivity increases people’s social circle, for example, or that they will change their behaviour just because they can. Internet shopping remains small (if fast-growing) compared with traditional retailing.

On the other hand, things can change remarkably quickly, and the changes can be profound. In the space of just five years the Internet has become the main means for people over university age to find romantic partners, for example, and in many areas of education it has almost completely taken over from print books.

Equally, the new transparency offered by the Internet has already forced everybody, from governments to companies, into change.

Download the Executive Summary here

 

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