Climate change disrupts where people live, what they can eat, and how they earn a living. Limiting the warming of the planet also means limiting the number of lives affected by climate-generated fragility and conflict. Climate change and conflict are among the leading causes of global hunger. Climate change affects food security as changing temperatures, rainfall variability, and more frequent and intense extreme weather events are straining water supplies and reducing crop yields, and causing food prices to rise and be more volatile. In 2019, up to 25.9% of the world’s population faced moderate or severe levels of food insecurity, up from 22.4% in 2014. This number is projected to increase further, particularly in Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean (FAO, 2020).
The effects of climate change and conflict on food and water availability and crop yields are linked to increases in migration and displacement, as communities migrate as an “adaptation strategy”, often from rural to urban areas (IEP, 2020). Growing urban centres exacerbate the potential for conflict in fragile conditions. Sharp increases in the number of people puts pressure on public goods and services, especially in secondary cities that lack the investment and infrastructure needed to sustainably cope with a growing population (EIU Safe Cities Index, 2019). Cities are also vulnerable to climate change, with a projected 800m urban inhabitants at risk from the impacts of rising seas and storm surges by 2050 (IPCC, 2019).
Effective climate adaptation and building resilience in climate-vulnerable settings are therefore essential to conflict prevention and facilitating long-term peace and prosperity.
