Sustainability

The Paris climate change talks: what will success look like?

December 02, 2015

Global

The Paris climate change talks: what will success look like?

December 02, 2015

Global
Martin Koehring

Senior Manager for Sustainability, Climate Change and Natural Resources & Head of the World Ocean Initiative

Martin Koehring is senior manager for sustainability, climate change and natural resources at (part of The Economist Group). He leads Economist Impact's sustainability-related policy and thought leadership projects in the EMEA region. He is also the head of the, inspiring bold thinking, new partnerships and the most effective action to build a sustainable ocean economy.

He is a member of the Advisory Committee for the UN Environment Programme’s Global Environment Outlook for Business and is a faculty member in the Food & Sustainability Certificate Program provided by the European Institute for Innovation and Sustainability.

His previous roles at The Economist Group, where he has been since 2011, include managing editor, global health lead and Europe editor at The Economist Intelligence Unit.

He earned a bachelor of economic and social studies in international relations from Aberystwyth University and a master’s degree in diplomacy and international relations from the College of Europe.

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As the Paris Climate Change Conference (also known as COP21) gets underway, The EIU's senior editor, Martin Koehring, examines what it will take for the talks to deliver ambitious outcomes that will have a real impact on tackling climate change.

Ahead of I was on the panel of a special ) organised by Thomson Reuters. The ten questions addressed during the chat covered crucial topics that will determine the success of COP21, ranging from questions about leadership and key players to the roles of the private sector and investors.

 

Q 1: What does leadership at Paris look like from your perspective?

Leaders have to finally take the necessary steps to introduce a fair and reliable carbon pricing system. A carbon price is a powerful economic signal that gives polluters an . Carbon prices are also a much better way to support the shift to a low-carbon economy than .

How should carbon prices be established? Carbon taxes may be a more promising way of establishing a carbon price than emissions trading schemes, which tend to lower the price by issuing too many tradable pollution permits. include Ireland in Europe, Chile in South America and Quebec in North America.

 

Q 2: Who should we be watching carefully?  Why?

Oil-rich Gulf countries haven't made up their mind yet whether to embrace the low-carbon transformation given that key sources of revenue from fossil fuels are at stake. The world's 14th largest polluter, Saudi Arabia, was the to the UN just three weeks ahead of COP21. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent scientific analysis, has judged in contributing to the goal of keeping the global average temperature increase within 2°C over pre-industrial levels.

 

Q3: Who could make the biggest difference, either way?

The biggest polluting countries—US, China, Europe, Russia & India (which account for around two thirds of global emissions)—need to agree on a mechanism to review climate-change targets post-COP21. This is at least as important as actually coming up with ambitious emissions-reduction targets in the first place. Such a regular review mechanism should be made legally binding in a new global agreement.

 

Q4: Is the fossil fuel industry the problem or part of the solution?

Ten major global fossil-fuel companies recently . However, the pledge was relatively vague, and should be followed up with clear goals and actions. Understandably, non-fossil fuel companies have been more eager to pledge tough climate action, e.g. the includes big companies from the technology, retail, clean energy, food and agriculture sectors.

 

Q5: Is new regulation likely to come out of this meeting soon enough to matter?

Regulatory changes are likely to happen, but COP21 is about strong political agreement. A robust agreement with plenty of legally binding measures would send strong signals to business and create more predictability. An ensuing virtuous cycle would then also include regulation.

 

Q6: What can we do in the short term to get emissions moving downward, if anything?

Focusing more on , is a cheap and clean energy solution—and the potential for more efficiency is still vast. Better storage, distribution and finance systems to unlock this potential hold a lot of promise in combating climate change.

 

Q7: Will the real decisions be made in the private sector, with the rest of us looking on?

Addressing climate change is about collective action. The private sector will react to signals from policymakers, consumers and the wider public. The spotlight at COP21 is on policymakers, but the overall response has to be multi-sectoral, integrated and coordinated.

 

Q8: Can investors really matter on climate, beyond around the edges?

Investors matter—both through investments in low-carbon assets and through their support for tough climate action. Asset managers are increasingly concerned about the costs of inaction on climate change. A recent report by The Economist Intelligence Unit, , states that climate change is expected, on average, to cause US$4.2trn of present value losses to current manageable assets by the year 2100. If global average temperatures rise by 5°C or 6°C the losses are projected to be much higher, at US$7.2trn or US$13.8trn respectively.

Investors can play a vital role by supporting low-carbon projects and new technologies, exemplified by a launched at COP21. The recent divestment trend matters too. To date, 430 institutions and 2,040 individuals across 43 countries, representing US$2.6trn in assets, have . Among the global players that have decided to divest from fossil fuels are Norway's sovereign wealth fund (the world's largest) and some of the world’s biggest pension funds.

 

Q9: Who will pay most for lack of real action in Paris?

The UN has highlighted in detail how economically, socially and/or politically marginalised groups are already . Future generations, however, will suffer the most from inaction by leaders of this generation. For governments, the economic costs of inaction are staggering: in monetary terms, , 30% of the entire stock of manageable assets.

 

Q10: What would be a good result from the talks?

As a recent highlights, based on countries' climate pledges so far, it is highly unlikely that a final agreement at COP21 will hold the global average temperature increase within the important 2°C threshold. However, COP21 can still become a milestone in global action on climate change if a strong political agreement emerges with a clear commitment to work towards carbon pricing and the implementation of an effective mechanism to review targets regularly post-COP21.

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