The China position: Gauging institutional investor confidence is an Economist Intelligence Unit report, comissioned by Invesco. It analyses results from a survey of 411 institutional investor and asset owner organisations (approximately 200 in Europe, Middle East and Africa, 100 in North America, and 100 from Asia-Pacific). The key findings of the survey are as follow:

A majority (nine in ten) of our survey respondents claim some level of dedicated exposure to China. Investments are growing; about half of respondents with dedicated China exposure report their investments have “risen significantly” in the past 12 months. Equities are the most-cited way organisations invest in China. Over 60% of respondents with dedicated China exposure report both equities and fixed income onshore holdings. Respondents cited improvements to their own China expertise as the top driver for dedicated investment exposure. Nearly four in ten respondents say environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors play a role in all of their investment decisions; fewer than three in ten say ESG is particularly important for China investments. Chinese asset classes in our survey could see increased investment from foreign organisations over the next 12 months, with respondents highlighting technology, financial services and “new economy” sectors as most attractive. Risk assessments are largely even across asset classes, but on a regional split respondents in APAC are more concerned than counterparts in North America or EMEA. Respondents are mixed on the impact of US-China trade tensions, with similar numbers expecting a positive or negative effect. But a majority of respondents report that their organisations expect to increase exposure over the next 12 months, regardless of outlook. About three-quarters of survey respondents say China’s economy will improve over the next 12 months; about two-thirds say the same for global economic conditions.

Our thanks are due to the following individuals for their time and insights:

Jimmy Chang, chief investment strategist, Rockefeller Capital Management Mark Delaney, deputy chief executive and chief investment officer, Australian Super Kevin Wade, chief investment officer, Superannuation Arrangements of the University of London (SAUL)

Download the report for more insights.

China icebergs: Forces that could reshape the world  is an Economist Intelligence Unit report, sponsored by PineBridge Investments, that examines hidden strengths in the Chinese economy—“icebergs”—that existing and potential investors into the world’s second-largest economy should be watching.

The US may have held its position as the world’s largest economy since 1871, but in the 1820s the world’s economic powerhouse was China, at almost 20 times the size of US GDP. China’s decline began in the 19th century and lasted until the country’s economic reforms that began in 1979. Since then, China has rapidly re-emerged as a major economy.

China’s boom has helped fuel global growth, but it has also raised the country’s debt levels and prompted questions about economic endurance and global impact. Trends may be visible on the surface, but, like an iceberg, bigger implications lie underneath. To get a better understanding, this report aims to go below headline numbers and explore the nation’s commercial strengths and potential weaknesses. Key takeaways include:

The economy is shifting, and consumers are the driving force. Liberalisation of the private sector is shifting China from a state-backed to a consumption-led economy, which could fully transition by 2030. Chinese technological advances are compounding. From mobile internet to fintech to artificial intelligence and flying cars, Chinese firms are innovating and advances are feeding into the local economy as well as going global. New growth centres are emerging—exponentially. China’s lower-tier cities are growing fast and catching up to the mega-cities in terms of technology, commerce and infrastructure.

What does the emergence of middle-class, digital-savvy consumers, the improving mobility of work and the rapid urbanisation mean for China's economy? We talked to Mr. Chibo Tang from Gobi Partners.

 

Across the Asia-Pacific region, governments and regulators are already implementing new strategies to digitise their economies and boost social inclusion. Faster payment networks are spreading, facilitating the adoption of mobile payments and the development of open banking. With mobile payment infrastructure and services already embedded in major economies, Asia-Pacific banks are looking to the next challenge. Digital technology regulations lag other regions but are under review (37% of respondents believe that emerging data regulation will have a major impact on the banking sector) as Asia looks to modernise, diversify and dilute its dependence on international trade.

The race is on

In markets where mobile payments have already taken root, banks and payment processors are battling tech companies on two fronts. They are working to retain their own retail card and current-account customers and attract new users to their apps and e-wallets. They also need to get and keep merchants on their side if they are to reap the economies of scale from a high-volume, low-margin sector.

Competition is intensifying between payment solutions based on application programming interfaces (APIs) and pre-loaded and credit card e-wallets. That may explain why survey respondents see an immediate need to master digital engagement and marketing (37% for 2020) to pull in users and merchants. They also need to be able to respond quickly when Alipay, WeChat Pay, Google and WhatsApp introduce new features (31% for 2020).

In India, app providers are already offering cashbacks, discount vouchers and other features to gain and retain market share. This may leave the smaller players vulnerable, particularly when all that is required to switch services is downloading an app. It is therefore likely that consolidation of this sector will follow. As Vijay Shekhar Sharma, founder and chief executive of Paytm, has pointed out, payments are merely the moat around other, more profitable services. The players with deep pockets will outlive their weaker competitors.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore was met with similar concerns that disruptors would leave the banks unprofitable when it first suggested the introduction of open banking. When the regulator pointed out that tech and fintech firms could already offer faster, simpler and cheaper transaction services, the banks agreed to collaborate on upgrading the banking system, providing all stakeholders operated within the same regulatory environment. 

Singapore is set to follow Hong Kong with virtual bank licences; ride-hailing app giant Grab is likely to be among the first applicants. That may worry established banks, but the question remains whether the big tech providers have the capacity to tie up capital in establishing their own bank operations. It is also not clear if they really want to expose themselves to the reputational risks that service interruptions or bad service present if they are the sole provider of such services. Grab already offers loans through a Japanese bank and recently signed up with Citibank to offer branded credit cards.2 If either of those services fail to deliver to consumers, the banks, not Grab, face the wrath of consumers and regulatory authorities.

Yet all Asian regulators are acutely aware of how Alipay and WeChat Pay were able to create an effective duopoly in an unregulated market. Chinese authorities are now bringing in new laws to level the playing field. Other authorities want to lay down the rules first, before such corrective action needs to be taken. As a result, the Chinese payment giants may find new markets tougher to crack when they must operate under tighter licensing and data protection rules.

As Steve Weston, co-founder of Australia’s Volt Bank, says of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority: “The regulators are focused on ensuring that all banks, including new entrants, are operating in a prudent manner.”