Technology & Innovation

Superfast Britain?

October 30, 2012

Europe

October 30, 2012

Europe
Our Editors

The Economist Intelligence Unit

_____________________

As the UK’s rollout of superfast broadband gains pace, how realistic are the anticipated benefits to the economy and society?

Report Summary

Superfast Britain? Myths and realities about the UK’s broadband future is an Economist Intelligence Unit report, sponsored by Huawei. It explores the case for the UK’s rollout of superfast broadband over the coming five years, to assess how realistic the hoped-for gains actually are.

Looking back, the first generations of Internet connectivity—from dial-up modems to the always-on broadband most of us are familiar with today—delivered clear and significant benefits to the UK. New industries have been created, generating large numbers of jobs. Research from McKinsey, a consultancy, suggests that the Internet accounts for over 5% of the UK’s GDP, and a far larger proportion of total economic growth over the past five years. For every job it has displaced, 2.6 new jobs have been created, it suggests.

Given this backdrop, the switch to tomorrow’s superfast broadband currently under way should, by some accounts, deliver a sizeable boost to GDP growth and speed up much-needed job creation within the foreseeable future—a godsend to an economy struggling to find its way to recovery. In the view of the government and several experts, superfast broadband will not only deliver jobs and growth, but also fundamentally alter how healthcare, education and other public services are delivered.

Will this next generation of connectivity, however, with its blazing speeds, continue to deliver prosperity in the same way that previous leaps have? The central argument of this report is that, while the gains from significantly faster connectivity will indeed be sizeable over time, a good dose of reality is also in order. Existing networks are capable of delivering many of the services anticipated over the next few years. Obstacles are also numerous to utilising even the existing technology capabilities to good effect, including a shortage of skills and resistance to change. In this context, some of the expectations about the early returns from superfast broadband rollout in the UK may be overstated.

Our analysis is based on a thorough review of existing research and in-depth discussions with a range of experts, including policymakers, academics and analysts, all with different perspectives and opinions. Not all of our discussants will concur completely with our conclusions, so it is important to underline that these are the Economist Intelligence Unit's alone.

The key findings are summarised as follows.

  • The shift to superfast broadband will certainly deliver added growth and new jobs, but it is difficult to see how this impact will match that resulting from the earlier switch from dial-up to broadband Internet, at least in the near term.
  • A short-term boost to jobs is inevitable, especially as the engineering work to build the networks gains pace. The longer-term, indirect impact on job growth is more difficult to project. Creation of jobs in some industries and regions may very well be partly offset by job losses elsewhere, for example.
  • For many anticipated benefits, it is less a case of the pipe needing to change and more that of established systems, processes and skills needing to evolve. This applies across a range of sectors, including healthcare and education.
  • In healthcare in particular, many anticipated benefits of telemedicine and remote diagnostics are realistic, but require wider reforms of the health system itself before they can be realised.
  • In many areas, but especially within business, a shortage of skills is at least as big a hindrance to putting technology to good use as constraints on bandwidth.
  • In the near term, ensuring pervasive Internet access to all parts of society—rural users, the elderly and others—will be at least as beneficial to society as a whole as upgrading to superfast broadband.

“Internet matters: The Net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs and prosperity”, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011.

Enjoy in-depth insights and expert analysis - subscribe to our Perspectives newsletter, delivered every week