Technology & Innovation

Rise of the machines

April 26, 2012

Global

April 26, 2012

Global
Our Editors

The Economist Intelligence Unit

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The promise of a world of connected devices

Report Summary

The promise of a world of connected devices, in which machines of all types and sizes can autonomously communicate with each other, has long been imagined. GM's OnStar business, which provides a growing range of in-vehicle services, has been around for some 17 years. But the past year has seen a surge of interest around the core enabling technology of the connected world: machine-to-machine (M2M) communication.

M2M market forecasts vary, but all predict big growth potential. Forecasts by analysts promise anything from 12bn to 50bn devices connected by 2020, up from just 1bn in 2010. Machina Research, an analyst, predicts revenue of €714bn (US$948bn) by 2020, including hardware and connectivity, a nearly eight-fold increase from €91bn (US$121bn) in 2010. Although such forecasts can sometimes prove to be overly optimistic, they are whetting the appetite of many eager participants.

Cheaper technology and smaller devices will drive take-up. Sensors, microprocessors and wireless technologies that once cost hundreds of dollars are now available for as little as the cost of a cup of coffee. Cloud computing and the ubiquity of smartphones will also drive adoption. Regulation is forcing uptake in some sectors such as energy and automotive. M2M business models based on proven efficiency and cost savings will see the most growth in the near term. Energy, automotive, healthcare, retail and manufacturing are just some of the major vertical markets actively deploying M2M-based applications today. Greater efficiency and costcutting are benefits that attract particular attention during tough times, such as automatic fleet tracking or operating driverless forklifts. Overall, Yankee Group, a technology research and consulting firm, forecasts that market segments focused on cost cutting will see the greatest growth, of some 17% per year between 2011 and 2015. In addition, the most successful business models benefit everyone in often complex supply chains. For example, Vitality GlowCaps, a connected pillbox, benefits patients by ensuring that they take their medicine and automatically ordering refills; pharmaceutical firms, which receive regular orders; and doctors, who are automatically updated on patients’ adherence to prescriptions.

Ultimately, long-term growth and innovation will come from experimentation within individual sectors, but many firms either do not understand the technology or have doubts about the true business benefits. M2M’s breakthrough potential lies in entrepreneurs and existing companies using the technology to create wholly new products and services, or in adding better quality of serviceto existing ones. GM’s OnStar offering is nowavailable as a subscription service for its rivals’vehicles, as one example. British Gas, an energyutility, has created a new home security service. However, a recent poll of businesses by Gartner, a technology analyst firm, found many with no plans to adopt M2M, largely owing to lingering doubt over its ability to provide measureable business value. A related challenge is the relatively limited awareness of M2M technology. More agreement over technology standards, a simplified provider ecosystem and the expansion of cloud-based services will all help to establish a platform for creativity.

In the coming decade telecommunications operators will need to standardise platforms, explore new partnerships and advance the sophistication of their offerings, all while making it simpler for end users to compare which packages best fit their needs. Operators and systems integrators must standardise technology platforms and develop open protocols to allow for tighter integration between sensors, devices and other hardware. Partnerships, sometimes with competitors, will be key in achieving this. Operators and their partners will need to overcome IT challenges too, such as ensuring that the new multitude of M2M data flows can be integrated into existing enterprise IT systems. Another barrier in this area is the difference between the lifespan of M2M devices, which can be designed to last two decades, and the type of networks on which they operate, which can have a much shorter shelf life. Telecoms firms will continue to experiment with their own business models: moving away from selling airtime, for example, and instead providing managed services, from transaction platforms through to back-end data analytics. Some of these decisions will drive down operators’ margins, but broad market adoption will not come without this.

Governments will need to address growing spectrum congestion, help simplify technology standards and consider streamlining regulations in some sectors to foster innovation. Although in some sectors, such as energy and automotive, regulations are a driver, in many sectors they are a hindrance to further adoption and innovation. Take incentives in healthcare: many doctors are reimbursed by the patients they see, not the ones they don’t. This hardly helps to prioritise M2M deployments that solve patient problems without a hospital visit. Regarding technology standards, for the sake of industry, this should ideally be done in parallel with other countries, to ensure consistency across borders.

Customer concerns about privacy and security will determine the viability of many M2M applications. Businesses will need to experiment through pilots and close attention to customer feedback to understand what customers will accept. Just as the emergence of social networking has created a debate about the boundaries of privacy in society, a connected world will also test social limits. So far customers have proven willing to allow personal information, such as present location or driving behaviour, to be shared on a limited basis in return for savings on car insurance premiums, for example, and assurances that their data are protected.

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