Technology & Innovation

Working among the robots

September 02, 2014

Global

September 02, 2014

Global

Working among the robots

The impact of agile automation on employment in manufacturing will be complex, and businesses and government will face some tough decisions.

“In the third manufacturing revolution we will have robotics, automation, 3-D printing [and] nanotechnologies. But only skilled jobs will be created.”

That was the prognosis made two years ago by New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, nicknamed “Dr Doom” for his pessimistic (but often accurate) forecasts.

There is no doubt that the adoption of robots is on the rise, especially in the manufacturing sector where the growing agility of robotic systems promises flexible and cost effective production lines. 

But is Mr Roubini right about the impact on the labour market?

According to the International Federation of Robotics, for every robot that is implemented, 3.6 jobs for human beings are created on average to help build, operate and maintain them.  These are indeed likely to be highly skilled roles, says David Bisset, road mapping coordinator for the European Robotics Association.

“Agile automation is not going to create assembly jobs,” he explains. ”If you’ve got automation going in, you need high-skilled engineering and technical staff who can install, maintain and run that equipment.”

However, Mr Bisset adds that by improving organisational efficiency, manufacturing robotics should create more jobs beyond the assembly line. “What you should also see is a knock-on effect where, with increased sales, you’re more likely to be hiring administrative, sales and marketing staff, so there would be a spread of employment increase.”

The precise impact of manufacturing robotics on employment will vary by region, Mr Bisset explains. In countries where there is already a high level of automation, agile systems will have less of an effect. In the UK – which is rebuilding its manufacturing base after a period of decline – there is more to gain from agile automation.

“The UK has a unique profile in that manufacturing was stripped out and it’s now being put back. Germany, Italy and Denmark are probably the European countries that are furthest ahead in automation. So these countries are unlikely to see as much benefit from agile automation as those like the UK, which have yet to automate.”

Nevertheless, the push towards robotics is very much a global game. In 2012, Taiwanese electronics manufacturing giant Foxconn announced plans to replace its human-operated assembly line with one million robots. So, even in parts of the world where labour is relatively cheap, it is becoming viable to pursue cost savings by introducing automation.

Reluctant take up

Despite having much to gain from it, the UK’s manufacturing sector is in fact among the world’s lowest adopters of robotics. Why the reluctance?

A recent survey of small and medium-sized businesses, conducted by American industrial robot supplier ABB, identified some of the barriers to robotics adoption. One of the primary concerns is the enduring belief that robots remain too complex for the majority of people to use.

Researchers and robot makers are tackling this complexity by working on what are known as “co-bots”, robots optimised for collaboration with humans. LIAA is a four-year collaborative project of leading European research institutes, automation component and robot suppliers, technology providers and end users, which aims to keep assembly jobs in Europe by creating and implementing a framework that enables humans and robots to work together.

“[Our] overall objective is to develop cost-effective, collaborative robot systems for assembly applications,” says Martin Naumann, group manager in the robot and assistive systems department at the Fraunhofer Institute, which leads the consortium. “Specific solutions will be developed for the design of safe collaborative work places, shop floor programming of the robot, and intuitive interaction of robot and worker.

“In the end, the resulting robot system should significantly increase the productivity of current manual assembly work places and relieve [people] of tedious, non-ergonomic jobs.”

"There needs to be a strategy in the rolling out of systems, intelligent integration of robotics and management of uptake"

Mr Bisset agrees that making robots simpler to use (a challenge that in fact requires them to be more sophisticated) should ease the pressure on low-skilled employees. “A lot of these agile systems, such as [Rethink Robotics’] Baxter, can be reconfigured by production line staff. They have to be trained but it is at a low-ish level and doesn’t require programming,” he explains.

Another barrier to adoption identified by ABB is cost and the length of time that companies believe it would take a sophisticated robotic system to deliver a return on investment.

Robotics companies are responding to this concern by developing lightweight and relatively inexpensive robots. A base model from Denmark’s Universal Robots, designed to be attractive to small and mid-sized businesses, sells for around £28,000.

The agile era

Mr Bissett predicts that the global manufacturing sector will begin to feel the disruptive impact of these agile and affordable robotics within 5 to 10 years. In some countries, including Malaysia and Germany, the effects are already visible, he adds.

In October 2014, for example, German carmaker Volkswagen announced that, due to a shortage of new workers, it will be replacing many of its retiring baby boomers with robots. (The company was careful to stress that it will continue to hire the same number of young employees to perform more highly skilled jobs).

As a result, governments will face some tough decisions on how to protect the livelihood of low-skilled workers in the manufacturing industry.

“The question of whether it’s more efficient for a government to subsidise low skilled workers or to pay them benefits will arise,” says Phil Williams, who heads up the Robotics and Automated Systems group (RAS SIG) of the UK’s technology development agency, Innovate UK.

“Robotics and automated systems offer the economy really great opportunities to remove the dirty jobs and elevate people to more challenging roles,” he explains. “But if we let the market decide, we’ll start to see job losses and we won’t see jobs being developed. There needs to be a [government] strategy in the rolling out of systems, intelligent integration of robotics and management of uptake.”

However easy it may be to programme and use ”co-bots”, there are still some fundamental capabilities that companies require if they are to reap the benefits, explains Mr Bisset,  “There’s an awareness needed of what the opportunity is and how you should go about implementing it,” he says. “For example, you can’t take a manually assembled product and automate it. A product has to be designed for automatic assembly.”

The march towards greater and more sophisticated automation in manufacturing is by this point unstoppable. Whatever level of staffing manufacturers may need in the agile era, it is certain that workers will need new skills and training. And that is a problem both government and business must address. 

What should governments and businesses do to make sire the use of robots does not deny human beings of the chance to earn a living? Share your thoughts on the Future Realities LinkedIn discussion group, sponsored by Dassault Systèmes. 

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