Consumer Goods: Trade challenges and opportunities post pandemic
Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, consumer goods accounted for a quarter of the world’s trade in goods, representing US$4.8trn in 2019.1 In 2020 private consumption declined by nearly 11% in the UK and Italy, 6-7% in Germany, France and Japan and 4% and 3% in the US and China respectively.2 Some goods sectors suffered more than others. Travel, entertainment and hospitality were some of the hardest hit, while others, like electronics, saw demand increase as remote working became widespread.
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Clean Growth: Trade challenges and opportunities post pandemic
Clean growth means facilitating economic development and improving standards of living, while protecting natural resources and ecosystems on which our well-being relies. The transition to a low-carbon economy requires mobilising investment and innovation to develop opportunities for inclusive and sustainable growth.
Achieving global net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 requires investment of US$1–2trn per year, which equates to roughly 1–1.5% of global GDP according to the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) – funding to facilitate a green industrial revolution.1 After years of underperformance and “boom–bust” cycles, several clean tech sectors are thriving, fuelled by consumer demand and private and public investment. The global market for low-carbon goods and services has been estimated at US$4.2trn, spanning everything from recycling and the circular economy to environmental performance analytics and labelling.2
Electric growth: Electric car stocks in selected countries, 2013-2018Rapidly increased demand and investment in innovation has made several clean technologies, such as the renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and energy-efficiency systems cost-competitive and ready for broader deployment. Wind energy costs in the US, for instance, have fallen from over 55 cents per kilowatt-hour in 1980 to under 3 cents today.3 Globally, solar photovoltaic costs have fallen 82% over the last decade, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).4 However, the net zero transition requires further innovation in technologies and services, such as carbon capture and storage, synthetic biology, carbon accounting, and others to reduce emissions from hard to abate sectors and activities.
Global renewable energy employment by techology, 2019Given the scale and the global nature of the challenge, international trade and investment is critical to the necessary innovation, development and diffusion of green goods and services. It also presents significant opportunities for business and countries that are able to develop innovative and productive capabilities and capacities in key clean growth sectors. The “Build Back Better” vision of recovery programmes following the Covid-19 pandemic – in which the fiscal demands of crisis recovery are seen as an opportunity to grapple with longstanding economic and social problems – has diverted significant funding towards the clean growth transition.5 It is crucial that this “green industrial policy” aims to make the clean transition “just”, by alleviating the social and economic costs by diversifying economic activity and helping people adapt in a changing labour market, without resorting to unwarranted protectionism.
[1] https://www.energy-transitions.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Making-Mission-Possible-Full-Report.pdf [2] https://ec.europa.eu/environment/eussd/smgp/facts_and_figures_en.htm [3] https://www.energy.gov/eere/next-generation-wind-technology [4] https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2019 [5] https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/themes/green-recovery
Agriculture, Food and Beverages: Trade challenges and opportunities post pa...
The global supply chains for food, agricultural products and technology experienced an unprecedented shock due to the pandemic. Despite the disruption trade in foodstuff remained remarkably resilient, highlighting the essential role of food supply in times of crisis. Nevertheless, global food systems are undergoing a structural transformation that is necessary, not only to feed the world’s growing population, but also to prevent damaging impacts of climate change and environmental degradation.
The globalisation of supply and markets has seen agri-food sectors become more integrated with other sectors of the economy, both within countries and across those value chains. International trade in food and agriculture has more than doubled in real terms between 1995 and 2018 to reach US$1.5trn.1 The total global food and beverages market was worth almost US$6trn in 2019, following annual growth of 5.7% since 2015. Prior to the pandemic, the market was forecast to reach a value of US$8.6trn by 2025, before climbing to nearly US$12trn by the end of the decade.2
The global food system has also become more “global”, as exports from developing countries and emerging economies made up more than one-third of global agri-food exports by 2018, with around a third of global agricultural and food exports traded within global value chains (GVCs).3 Agri-food value chains have been driven by foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade, allowing companies to operate across multiple regions and making it easier for developing countries to integrate into global markets.
Globalised food: Agri-food exports and imports, average annual growth ratesHowever, the pace of this internationalisation has slowed down in recent years, and the global pandemic fuelled concerned about the resilience and sustainability of the global food system. While supply chains proved largely resilient, parts of the developing world experienced food security crises as a result of the pandemic. The Covid-19 pandemic further execrated the trends that saw the number of undernourished people increase by as many as 161 million from 2019 to 2020.4 The UN FAO warned that even though agri-food systems had proved resilient, the economic effects of the pandemic would cause acute and chronic food insecurity to increase, with the most vulnerable groups in society hit by lower incomes and employment.5 With the world’s population forecast to hit the 10bn mark by 2050, global food demand is expected to continue to grow significantly, putting further pressure on the global food system.
Meeting this demand will require development and adoption of innovative technologies and practices throughout the global value chain. In developing countries, for instance, agricultural technology (agri-tech) helps to empower the huge population of smallholder farms in areas including Africa and South Asia by giving them platforms for trading, connecting, learning and creating greater efficiency. More advanced technology, such as Artificial intelligence (AI), now plays a large role in agri-tech and is expected to become increasingly focused on precision agriculture with the optimisation of decisions on cropping, livestock husbandry and land management to improve farm efficiency and productivity. The new emerging precision ‘smart’ agriculture market is estimated to grow rapidly from US$13.8bn in 2020 to US$22bn by 2025.6
Many of the solutions developed by agri-tech providers target the urgent challenge of sustainability in supply chains and food production. With the food supply chain accounting for a quarter of all global emissions – 82% of which are attributed to food production – cutting emissions, ecological harm and waste are at the core of national sustainable development strategies.7 Food systems also have a negative impact on biodiversity, contributing to the mass extinction of species, ecocide, soil loss, land degradation, air pollution and emissions. A shift towards alternative sources of protein, nature-positive food practices, such as conservation agriculture, sustainable aquaculture (fish farming) and vertical farming, as well as sustainability standards and targets will all be required to make the global food systems ready to face the current and future challenges.8
Heavy emitters: Global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions 1FAO. ‘The state of agricultural commodity markets - agricultural markets and sustainable development: global value chains, smallholder farmers and digital innovations’. 2020. http://www.fao.org/3/cb0665en/CB0665EN.pdf 2Research and Markets. ‘Insights on the Food and Beverages Global Market to 2030 - Identify Growth Segments for Investment’ (internet). PR Newswire. 2021. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/insights-on-the-food-and-beverages-global-market-to-2030---identify-growth-segments-for-investment-301202729.html 3FAO. ‘The state of agricultural markets 2020’. 2020. http://www.fao.org/home/digital-reports/state-of-agricultural-commodity-markets/en 4FAO. The Sate of Food Security, 2021. http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition 5FAO. ‘Covid-19, agricultural markets and trade and FAO’s response’. 2021. http://www.fao.org/3/nf041en/nf041en.pdf 6Markets and Markets, ‘Smart Agriculture Market worth $22.0 billion by 2025’. 2020. https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/smart-agriculture.asp 7Ritchie, H. ‘Food production is responsible for one quarter of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions’ 2019. https://ourworldindata.org/food-ghg-emissions 8UNCTAD. ‘Trade and development report 2020. From global pandemic to prosperity for all – avoiding another lost decade’. 2020. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tdr2020_en.pdf; The Economist Intelligence Unit. ‘Changing trends in food: discovering and utilising alternative crops’. https://foodsustainability.eiu.com/blogs/changing-trends-in-food-discovering-and-utilising-alternative-crops/Education: Trade challenges and opportunities post pandemic
The Covid-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented disruptions to education systems; however it has also accelerated many of the structural changes undergoing in the sector and opened up new opportunities. The emergence online and hybrid learning models, the take-up of Massive Online Open Courses (MOOCs) and augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR) have the potential to reshape the sector and pose serious threats to current incumbents, if investment in supporting connectivity infrastructure and training is not embraced.
The global education sector has reached an impressive scale, having grown rapidly over the previous decade, and forecasted to double in market size within the next decade. Total enrollment across all levels of education reached 829 million students in late 2019, a 14% increase from 2010. In 2019, more than 5.5 million students studied in degree programmes outside their home countries, more than double the number doing so in 2000. The global education market is projected to continue expanding rapidly and more than double in size, reaching US$2.4trn by 2027, up from US$1.1trn in 2019.1
Growing student population: Global student enrollment, 2010-2019 (million students) growth ratesThe pandemic has accelerated the digital imperative, a likely irreversible change, that is forcing education providers to rethink their strategies. Although most students have returned to classrooms since the height of the pandemic, educational institutions can now be certain that blended or digital-only modes of learning are part of their future. Established high education providers can no longer afford to put off investment in the digital future, as growing competition from new entrants in the market intensifies. The strongest challenges are posed by online-only providers of MOOCs (Massive Online Open Courses). This segment has seen rapid growth in 2020, increasing its international base of registered learners by 50%, and reaching 180 million users (excluding China).2 US-based MOOC Coursera has led the charge, adding 30 million new users in 2020 and attracting substantial new funding to increase its expansion. There is growing expectations that MOOCs, as they refine their models, will have a larger impact on the sector in the years to come.
Global spending on education technology is also showing signs of expansion. Total spending worldwide in 2020 was US$227bn, accounting for 3.6% of total expenditure on education and training. Spending is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years, reaching US$404bn in 2025.3 Advanced technologies that enable immersive and multi-sensory learning methods, such as augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), are expected to grow fastest to around US$13bn globally, while AI and robotics spend is expected to reach US$9bn.4 Investors follow the suit, as the EdTech segments attracted over US$16bn venture capital (VC) investment in 2020, up from just US$1.8bn in 2014.
EdTech boom: Global Venture Capital (VC) investment in EdTech, 2015-2020 (US$bn)There are however significant structural challenges that remain in place that may hinder the growth EdTech. The lack of high-quality broadband infrastructure needed to support more advanced forms of learning, coupled with teachers’ lack of readiness to embrace digital forms of learning are some of the biggest limits to the growth in the sector. Governments and telecom companies have a major role to play in upgrading the current broadband infrastructure, guaranteeing faster levels of connectivity and increasing digital skills training. There are further concerns towards data security and the need to ensure adequate data privacy practices by EdTech firms.
1 Fortune Business Insights, 2020: https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/higher-education-market-104503 2 The Report by Class Central, 2020: https://www.classcentral.com/report/the-second-year-of-the-mooc/ 3 HolonIQ, January 2021: https://www.holoniq.com/edtech/10-charts-that-explain-the-global-education-technology-market/ 4 IbidSouth Africa’s post-pandemic consumer: Building on new foundations
When South Africa entered one of the world’s strictest lockdowns on March 27th, its economy was already in recession and unemployment stood at 30%.1 In a bid to curb the spread of coronavirus among the country’s 60m people,2 the government banned sales of all but essential items—mainly food, medicine and hygiene products—until early May.
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The Hinrich Foundation Sustainable Trade Index 2018
Yet the enthusiasm in Asia for trade does not appear to have waned. This broad societal consensus behind international trade has enabled Asian countries to continue broadening and deepening existing trading relationships, for example, by quickly hammering out a deal for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in early 2018 following the US’s withdrawal from its predecessor in 2017.
Asia, then, finds itself in the unique position of helping lead and sustain the global economy’s commitment to free and fair trade. It is in this context that the need for sustainability in trade is ever more crucial.
The Hinrich Foundation Sustainable Trade Index was created for the purpose of stimulating meaningful discussion of the full range of considerations that policymakers, business executives, and civil society leaders must take into account when managing and advancing international trade.
The index was commissioned by the Hinrich Foundation, a non-profit organisation focused on promoting sustainable trade. This, the second edition of the study, seeks to measure the capacity of 20 economies—19 in Asia along with the US—to participate in the international trading system in a manner that supports the long-term domestic and global goals of economic growth, environmental protection, and strengthened social capital. The index’s key findings include:
Countries in Asia, especially the richer ones, have broadly regressed in terms of trade sustainability. Hong Kong is developed Asia’s bright spot, recording a slight increase in its score and topping the 2018 index. Several middle-income countries perform admirably, led by Sri Lanka. For the economic pillar, countries generally performed well in terms of growing their labour forces as well as their per-head GDPs. For the social pillar, sharp drops for some countries in certain social pillar indicators contribute to an overall decline. For the environmental pillar, with deteriorating environmental sustainability in many rich countries, China, Laos and Pakistan are the only countries to record increases in scores. Sustainability is an ever more important determinant of FDI and vendor selection in choosing supply-chain partners. Companies are improving the sustainability of their supply chains by restructuring and broadening relationships with competitors and vendors.The Global Illicit Trade Environment Index 2018
To measure how nations are addressing the issue of illicit trade, the Transnational Alliance to Combat Illicit Trade (TRACIT) has commissioned The Economist Intelligence Unit to produce the Global Illicit Trade Environment Index, which evaluates 84 economies around the world on their structural capability to protect against illicit trade. The global index expands upon an Asia-specific version originally created by The Economist Intelligence Unit in 2016 to score 17 economies in Asia.
View the Interactive Index >> Download workbook
Breaking Barriers: Agricultural trade between GCC and Latin America
The GCC-LAC agricultural trading relationship has thus far been dominated by the GCC’s reliance on food imports, specifically meat, sugar, and cereals. Over the past two years, however, there has been a notable decline in the share of sugar imported from LAC, and 2017 saw the biggest importers in the GCC—Saudi Arabia and the UAE—impose a ban on Brazilian meat.
Market players on both sides of the aisle are keen to grow the relationship further, but there are hurdles to overcome. In this report, we explore in greater depth the challenges that agricultural exporters and importers in LAC and the GCC face. We consider both tariff and non-tariff barriers and assess key facets of the trading relationship including transport links, customs and certification, market information, and trade finance.
Key findings of the report:
GCC will need to continue to build partnerships to ensure a secure supply of food. Concerns over food security have meant that the GCC countries are exploring ways to produce more food locally. However, given the region’s climate and geology, food imports will remain an important component of the food supply. Strengthening partnerships with key partners such as those in LAC, from which it sourced 9% of its total agricultural imports in 2016, will be vital to food security in the region.
There is a wider range of products that the LAC countries can offer the GCC beyond meat, sugar and cereals. Providing more direct air links and driving efficiencies in shipping can reduce the time and cost of transporting food products. This will, in turn, create opportunities for LAC exporters to supply agricultural goods with a shorter shelf life or those that are currently too expensive to transport. Exporters cite examples such as berries and avocados.
The GCC can engage small and medium-sized producers that dominate the LAC agricultural sector by offering better trade financing options and connectivity. More direct air and sea links can reduce the cost of transporting food products, making it viable for smaller players to participate in agricultural trade. The existing trade financing options make it prohibitive for small and medium-sized players too. Exporters in LAC suggest that local governments and private companies in the GCC can offer distribution services with immediate payments to smaller suppliers at a discount.
Blockchain technology is poised to address key challenges market players face in agricultural trade. Through a combination of smart contracts and data captured through devices, blockchain technology can help to reduce paperwork, processing times and human error in import and export processes. It can improve transparency, as stakeholders can receive information on the state of goods and status of shipments in real time. Finally, it can help with food safety and quality management—monitoring humidity and temperature, for instance, along the supply chain can help to pinpoint batches that may be contaminated, minimising the need for a blanket ban on a product.
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About the research
Accelerating urban intelligence: People, business and the cities of tomorrow is an Economist Intelligence Unit report, sponsored by Nutanix. It explores expectations of citizens and businesses for smart-city development in some of the world’s major urban centres. The analysis is based on two parallel surveys conducted in 19 cities: one of 6,746 residents and another of 969 business executives. The cities included are Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Dubai, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Johannesburg, London, Los Angeles, Mumbai, New York, Paris, Riyadh, San Francisco, São Paulo, Singapore, Stockholm, Sydney, Tokyo and Zurich.
Respondents to the citizen survey were evenly balanced by age (roughly one-third in each of the 18-38, 39-54 and 55 years and older age groups) and gender. A majority (56%) had household incomes above the median level in their city, with 44% below it. Respondents to the business survey were mainly senior executives (65% at C-suite or director level) working in a range of different functions. They work in large, midsize and small firms in over a dozen industries. See the report appendix for full survey results and demographics.
Additional insights were obtained from indepth interviews with city officials, smart-city experts at NGOs and other institutions, and business executives. We would like to thank the following individuals for their time and insights.
Pascual Berrone, academic co-director, Cities in Motion, and professor, strategic management, IESE Business School (Barcelona) Lawrence Boya, director, Smart City Programme, city of Johannesburg Amanda Daflos, chief innovation officer, city of Los Angeles Linda Gerull, chief information officer, city of San Francisco Praveen Pardeshi, municipal commissioner, Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (Mumbai) • Brian Roberts, policy analyst, city of San Francisco Sameer Sharma, global general manager, Internet of Things (IoT), Intel • Marius Sylvestersen, programme director, Copenhagen Solutions Lab Tan Kok Yam, deputy secretary of the Smart Nation and Digital Government, Prime Minister’s Office, SingaporeThe report was written by Denis McCauley and edited by Michael Gold.
Talent for innovation
Talent for innovation: Getting noticed in a global market incorporates case studies of the 34 companies selected as Technology Pioneers in biotechnology/health, energy/environmental technology, and information technology.
Leonardo Da Vinci unquestionably had it in the 15th century; so did Thomas Edison in the 19th century. But today, "talent for innovation" means something rather different. Innovation is no longer the work of one individual toiling in a workshop. In today's globalised, interconnected world, innovation is the work of teams, often based in particular innovation hotspots, and often collaborating with partners, suppliers and customers both nearby and in other countries.
Innovation has become a global activity as it has become easier for ideas and talented people to move from one country to another. This has both quickened the pace of technological development and presented many new opportunities, as creative individuals have become increasingly prized and there has been greater recognition of new sources of talent, beyond the traditional innovation hotspots of the developed world.
The result is a global exchange of ideas, and a global market for innovation talent. Along with growth in international trade and foreign direct investment, the mobility of talent is one of the hallmarks of modern globalisation. Talented innovators are regarded by companies, universities and governments as a vital resource, as precious as oil or water. They are sought after for the simple reason that innovation in products and services is generally agreed to be a large component, if not the largest component, in driving economic growth. It should be noted that "innovation" in this context does not simply mean the development of new, cutting-edge technologies by researchers.
It also includes the creative ways in which other people then refine, repackage and combine those technologies and bring them to market. Indeed, in his recent book, "The Venturesome Economy", Amar Bhidé, professor of business at Columbia University, argues that such "orchestration" of innovation can actually be more important in driving economic activity than pure research. "In a world where breakthrough ideas easily cross national borders, the origin of ideas is inconsequential," he writes. Ideas cross borders not just in the form of research papers, e-mails and web pages, but also inside the heads of talented people. This movement of talent is not simply driven by financial incentives. Individuals may also be motivated by a desire for greater academic freedom, better access to research facilities and funding, or the opportunity to work with key researchers in a particular field.
Countries that can attract talented individuals can benefit from more rapid economic growth, closer collaboration with the countries where those individuals originated, and the likelihood that immigrant entrepreneurs will set up new companies and create jobs. Mobility of talent helps to link companies to sources of foreign innovation and research expertise, to the benefit of both. Workers who emigrate to another country may bring valuable knowledge of their home markets with them, which can subsequently help companies in the destination country to enter those markets more easily. Analysis of scientific journals suggests that international co-authorship is increasing, and there is some evidence thatcollaborative work has a greater impact than work carried out in one country. Skilled individuals also act as repositories of knowledge, training the next generation and passing on their accumulated wisdom.
But the picture is complicated by a number of concerns. In developed countries which have historically depended to a large extent on foreign talent (such as the United States), there is anxiety that it is becoming increasingly difficult to attract talent as new opportunities arise elsewhere. Compared with the situation a decade ago, Indian software engineers, for example, may be more inclined to set up a company in India, rather than moving to America to work for a software company there. In developed countries that have not historically relied on foreign talent (such as Germany), meanwhile, the ageing of the population as the birth rate falls and life expectancy increases means there is a need to widen the supply of talent, as skilled workers leave the workforce and young people show less interest than they used to in technical subjects. And in developing countries, where there is a huge supply of new talent (hundreds of thousands of engineers graduate from Indian and Chinese universities every year), the worry is that these graduates have a broad technical grounding but may lack the specialised skills demanded by particular industries.
Other shifts are also under way. The increasing sophistication of emerging economies (notably India and China) is overturning the old model of "create in the West, customise for the East". Indian and Chinese companies are now globally competitive in many industries. And although the mobility of talent is increasing, workers who move to another country are less likely to stay for the long-term, and are more likely to return to their country of origin. The number of Chinese students studying abroad increased from 125,000 in 2002 to 134,000 in 2006, for example, but the proportion who stayed in the country where they studied after graduating fell from 85% to 69% over the same period, according to figures from the OECD (see page 10).
What is clear is that the emergence of a global market for talent means gifted innovators are more likely to be able to succeed, and new and unexpected opportunities are being exploited, as this year's Technology Pioneers demonstrate. They highlight three important aspects of the global market for talent: the benefits of mobility, the significant role of diasporas, and the importance of network effects in catalysing innovation.
Brain drain, or gain?
Perhaps the most familiar aspect of the debate about flows of talent is the widely expressed concern about the "brain drain" from countries that supply talented workers. If a country educates workers at the taxpayers' expense, does it not have a claim on their talent? There are also worries that the loss of skilled workers can hamper institutional development and drive up the cost of technical services. But such concerns must be weighed against the benefits of greater mobility.
There are not always opportunities for skilled individuals in their country of birth. The prospect of emigration can encourage the development of skills by individuals who may not in fact decide to emigrate. Workers who emigrate may send remittances back to their families at home, which can be a significant source of income and can help to alleviate poverty. And skilled workers may return to their home countries after a period working abroad, further stimulating knowledge transfer and improving the prospects for domestic growth, since they will maintain contacts with researchers overseas. As a result, argues a recent report from the OECD, it makes more sense to talk of a complex process of "brain circulation" rather than a one-way "brain drain". The movement of talent is not simply a zero-sum gain in which sending countries lose, and receiving countries benefit. Greater availability and mobility of talent opens up new possibilities and can benefit everyone.
Consider, for example, BioMedica Diagnostics of Windsor, Nova Scotia. The company makes medical diagnostic systems, some of them battery-operated, that can be used to provide health care in remote regions to people who would otherwise lack access to it. It was founded by Abdullah Kirumira, a Ugandan biochemist who moved to Canada in 1990 and became a professor at Acadia University. There he developed a rapid test for HIV in conjunction with one of his students, Hermes Chan (a native of Hong Kong who had moved to Canada to study). According to the United States Centers for Disease Control, around one-third of people tested for HIV do not return to get the result when it takes days or weeks to determine. Dr Kirumira and Dr Chan developed a new test that provides the result in three minutes, so that a diagnosis can be made on the spot. Dr Kirumira is a prolific inventor who went on to found several companies, and has been described as "the pioneer of Nova Scotia's biotechnology sector".
Today BioMedica makes a range of diagnostic products that are portable, affordable and robust, making them ideally suited for use in developing countries. They allow people to be rapidly screened for a range of conditions, including HIV, hepatitis, malaria, rubella, typhoid and cholera. The firm's customers include the World Health Organisation. Providing such tests to patients in the developing world is a personal mission of Dr Kirumira's, but it also makes sound business sense: the market for invitro diagnostics in the developing world is growing by over 25% a year, the company notes, compared with growth of only 5% a year in developed nations.
Moving to Canada gave Dr Kirumira research opportunities and access to venture funding that were not available in Uganda. His innovations now provide an affordable way for hospitals in his native continent of Africa to perform vital tests. A similar example is provided by mPedigree, a start-up that has developed a mobile-phone-based system that allows people to verify the authenticity of medicines. Counterfeit drugs are widespread in the developing world: they are estimated to account for 10-25% of all drugs sold, and over 80% in some countries. The World Health Organisation estimates that a fake vaccine for meningitis, distributed in Niger in 1995, killed over 2,500 people. mPedigree was established by Bright Simons, a Ghanaian social entrepreneur, in conjunction with Ashifi Gogo, a fellow Ghanaian. The two were more than just acquaintances having met at Secondary School. There are many high-tech authentication systems available in the developed world for drug packaging, involving radio-frequency identification (RFID) chips, DNA tags, and so forth.
The mPedigree system developed my Mr Gogo, an engineering student, is much cheaper and simpler and only requires the use of a mobile phone — an item that is now spreading more quickly in Africa than in any other region of the world. Once the drugs have been purchased, a panel on the label is scratched off to reveal a special code. The patient then sends this code, by text message, to a particular number. The code is looked up in a database and a message is sent back specifying whether the drugs are genuine. The system is free to use because the drug companies cover the cost of the text messages. It was launched in Ghana in 2007, and mPedigree's founders hope to extend it to all 48 sub-Saharan African countries within a decade, and to other parts of in the developing world.
The effort is being supported by Ghana's Food and Drug Board, and by local telecoms operators and drug manufacturers. Mr Gogo has now been admitted into a special progamme at Dartmouth College in the United States that develops entrepreneurial skills, in addition to technical skills, in engineers. Like Dr Kirumira, he is benefiting from opportunities that did not exist in his home country, and his country is benefiting too. This case of mPedigree shows that it is wrong to assume that the movement of talent is one-way (from poor to rich countries) and permanent. As it has become easier to travel and communications technology has improved, skilled workers have become more likely to spend brief spells in other countries that provide opportunities, rather than emigrating permanently.
And many entrepreneurs and innovators shuttle between two or more places — between Tel Aviv and Silicon Valley, for example, or Silicon Valley and Hsinchu in Taiwan — in a pattern of "circular" migration, in which it is no longer meaningful to distinguish between "sending" and "receiving" countries.
The benefits of a diaspora
Migration (whether temporary, permanent or circular) to a foreign country can be facilitated by the existence of a diaspora, since it can be easier to adjust to a new culture when you are surrounded by compatriots who have already done so. Some observers worry that diasporas make migration too easy, in the sense that they may encourage a larger number of talented individuals to leave their home country than would otherwise be the case, to the detriment of that country.
But as with the broader debate about migration, this turns out to be only part of the story. Diasporas can have a powerful positive effect in promoting innovation and benefiting the home country. Large American technology firms, for example, have set up research centres in India in part because they have been impressed by the calibre of the migrant Indian engineers they have employed in America. Diasporas also provide a channel for knowledge and skills to pass back to the home country.
James Nakagawa, a Canadian of Japanese origin and the founder of Mobile Healthcare, is a case in point. A third-generation immigrant, he grew up in Canada but decided in 1994 to move to Japan, where he worked for a number of technology firms and set up his own financial-services consultancy. In 2000 he had the idea that led him to found Mobile Healthcare, when a friend was diagnosed with diabetes and lamented that he found it difficult to determine which foods to eat, and which to avoid.
The rapid spread of advanced mobile phones in Japan, a world leader in mobile telecoms, prompted Mr Nakagawa to devise Lifewatcher, Mobile Healthcare's main product. It is a "disease selfmanagement system" used in conjunction with a doctor, based around a secure online database that can be accessed via a mobile phone. Patients record what medicines they are taking and what food they are eating, taking a picture of each meal. A database of common foodstuffs, including menu items from restaurants and fast-food chains, helps users work out what they can safely eat. Patients can also call up their medical records to follow the progress of key health indicators, such as blood sugar, blood pressure, cholesterol levels and calorie intake.
All of this information can also be accessed online by the patient's doctor or nutritionist. The system allows people with diabetes or obesity (both of which are rapidly becoming more prevalent in Japan and elsewhere) to take an active role in managing their conditions. Mr Nakagawa did three months of research in the United States and Canada while developing Lifewatcher, which was created with support from Apple (which helped with hardware and software), the Japanese Red Cross and Japan's Ministry of Health and Welfare (which provided full access to its nutritional database).
Japanese patients who are enrolled in the system have 70% of the cost covered by their health insurance. Mr Nakagawa is now working to introduce Lifewatcher in the United States and Canada, where obesity and diabetes are also becoming more widespread — along advanced mobile phones of the kind once only found in Japan. Mr Nakagawa's ability to move freely between Japanese and North American cultures, combining the telecoms expertise of the former with the entrepreneurial approach of the latter, has resulted in a system that can benefit both.
The story of Calvin Chin, the Chinese-American founder of Qifang, is similar. Mr Chin was born and educated in America, and worked in the financial services and technology industries for several years before moving to China. Expatriate Chinese who return to the country, enticed by opportunities in its fast-growing economy, are known as "returning turtles". Qifang is a "peer to peer" (P2P) lending site that enables students to borrow money to finance their education from other users of the site. P2P lending has been pioneered in other countries by sites such as Zopa and Prosper in other countries.
Such sites require would-be borrowers to provide a range of personal details about themselves to reassure lenders, and perform credit checks on them. Borrowers pay above-market rates, which is what attracts lenders. Qifang adds several twists to this formula. It is concentrating solely on student loans, which means that regulators are more likely to look favourably on the company's unusual business model. It allows payments to be made directly to educational institutions, to make sure the money goes to the right place. Qifang also requires borrowers to give their parents' names when taking out a loan, which increases the social pressure on them not to default, since that would cause the family to lose face.
Mr Chin has thus tuned an existing business model to take account of the cultural and regulatory environment in China, where P2P lending could be particularly attractive, given the relatively undeveloped state of China's financial-services market. In a sense, Qifang is just an updated, online version of the community group-lending schemes that are commonly used to finance education in China. The company's motto is that "everyone should be able to get an education, no matter their financial means".
Just as Mr Chin is trying to use knowledge acquired in the developed world to help people in his mother country of China, Sachin Duggal hopes his company, Nivio, will do something similar for people in India. Mr Duggal was born in Britain and is of Indian extraction. He worked in financial services, including a stint as a technologist at Deutsche Bank, before setting up Nivio, which essentially provides a PC desktop, personalised with a user's software and documents, that can be accessed from any web browser.
This approach makes it possible to centralise the management of PCs in a large company, and is already popular in the business world. But Mr Duggal hopes that it will also make computing more accessible to people who find the prospect of owning and managing their own PCs (and dealing with spam and viruses) too daunting, or simply cannot afford a PC at all. Nivio's software was developed in India, where Mr Duggal teamed up with Iqbal Gandham, the founder of Net4India, one of India's first internet service providers. Mr Duggal believes that the "virtual webtop" model could have great potential in extending access to computers to rural parts of India, and thus spreading the opportunities associated with the country's high-tech boom. A survey of the bosses of Indian software firms clearly shows how diasporas can promote innovation.
It found that those bosses who had lived abroad and returned to India made far more use of diaspora links upon their return than entrepreneurs who had never lived abroad, which gave them access to capital and skills in other countries. Diasporas can, in other words, help to ensure that "brain drain" does indeed turn into "brain gain", provided the government of the country in question puts appropriate policies in place to facilitate the movement of people, technology and capital.
Making the connection
Multinational companies can also play an important role in providing new opportunities for talented individuals, and facilitating the transfer of skills. In recent years many technology companies have set up large operations in India, for example, in order to benefit from the availability of talented engineers and the services provided by local companies. Is this simply exploitation of low-paid workers by Western companies?
The example of JiGrahak Mobility Solutions, a start-up based in Bangalore, illustrates why it is not. The company was founded by Sourabh Jain, an engineering graduate from the Delhi Institute of Technology. After completing his studies he went to work for the Indian research arm of Lucent Technologies, an American telecoms-equipment firm. This gave him a solid grounding in mobile-phone technology, which subsequently enabled him to set up JiGrahak, a company that provides a mobile-commerce service called Ngpay.
In India, where many people first experience the internet on a mobile phone, rather than a PC, and where mobile phones are far more widespread than PCs, there is much potential for phone-based shopping and payment services. Ngpay lets users buy tickets, pay bills and transfer money using their handsets. Such is its popularity that with months of its launch in 2008, Ngpay accounted for 4% of ticket sales at Fame, an Indian cinema chain.
The role of large companies in nurturing talented individuals, who then leave to set up their own companies, is widely understood in Silicon Valley. Start-ups are often founded by alumni from Sun, HP, Oracle and other big names. Rather than worrying that they could be raising their own future competitors, large companies understand that the resulting dynamic, innovative environment benefits everyone, as large firms spawn, compete with and acquire smaller ones.
As large firms establish outposts in developing countries, such catalysis of innovation is becoming more widespread. Companies with large numbers of employees and former employees spread around the world can function rather like a corporate diaspora, in short, providing another form of network along which skills and technology can diffuse. The network that has had the greatest impact on spreading ideas, promoting innovation and allowing potential partners to find out about each other's research is, of course, the internet. As access to the internet becomes more widespread, it can allow developing countries to link up more closely with developed countries, as the rise of India's software industry illustrates. But it can also promote links between developing countries.
The Cows to Kilowatts Partnership, based in Nigeria, provides an unusual example. It was founded by Joseph Adelagan, a Nigerian engineer, who was concerned about the impact on local rivers of effluent from the Bodija Market abattoir in Ibadan. As well as the polluting the water supply of several nearby villages, the effluent carried animal diseases that could be passed to humans. Dr Adelagan proposed setting up an effluent-treatment plant.
He discovered, however, that although treating the effluent would reduce water pollution, the process would produce carbon-dioxide and methane emissions that contribute to climate change. So he began to look for ways to capture these gases and make use of them. Researching the subject online, he found that a research institution in Thailand, the Centre for Waste Utilisation and Management at King Mongkut University of Technology Thonburi, had developed anaerobic reactors that could transform agro-industrial waste into biogas. He made contact with the Thai researchers, and together they developed a version of the technology
suitable for use in Nigeria that turns the abattoir waste into clean household cooking gas and organic fertiliser, thus reducing the need for expensive chemical fertiliser. The same approach could be applied across Africa, Dr Adelagan believes. The Cows to Kilowatts project illustrates the global nature of modern innovation, facilitated by the free movement of both ideas and people. Thanks to the internet, people in one part of the world can easily make contact with people trying to solve similar problems elsewhere.
Lessons learned
What policies should governments adopt in order to develop and attract innovation talent, encourage its movement and benefit from its circulation? At the most basic level, investment in education is vital. Perhaps surprisingly, however, Amar Bhidé of Columbia University suggests that promoting innovation does not mean pushing as many students as possible into technical subjects.
Although researchers and technologists provide the raw material for innovation, he points out, a crucial role in orchestrating innovation is also played by entrepreneurs who may not have a technical background. So it is important to promote a mixture of skills. A strong education system also has the potential to attract skilled foreign students, academics and researchers, and gives foreign companies an incentive to establish nearby research and development operations.
Many countries already offer research grants, scholarships and tax benefits to attract talented immigrants. In many cases immigration procedures are "fast tracked" for individuals working in science and technology. But there is still scope to remove barriers to the mobility of talent. Mobility of skilled workers increasingly involves short stays, rather than permanent moves, but this is not yet widely reflected in immigration policy. Removing barriers to short-term stays can increase "brain circulation" and promote diaspora links.
Another problem for many skilled workers is that their qualifications are not always recognised in other countries. Greater harmonisation of standards for qualifications is one way to tackle this problem; some countries also have formal systems to evaluate foreign qualifications and determine their local equivalents. Countries must also provide an open and flexible business environment to ensure that promising innovations can be brought to market. If market access or financial backing are not available, after all, today's global-trotting innovators increasingly have the option of going elsewhere.
The most important point is that the global competition for talent is not a zero-sum game in which some countries win, and others lose. As the Technology Pioneers described here demonstrate, the nature of innovation, and the global movement of talent and ideas, is far more complicated that the simplistic notion of a "talent war" between developed and developing nations would suggest. Innovation is a global activity, and granting the greatest possible freedom to innovators can help to ensure that the ideas they generate will benefit the greatest possible number of people.
Integrated Transformation: How rising customer expectations are turning com...
Modern customers have it good. Spoilt for choice and convenience, today’s empowered consumers have come to expect more from the businesses they interact with. This doesn’t just apply to their wanting a quality product at a fair price, but also tailored goods, swift and effective customer service across different channels, and a connected experience across their online shopping and in-store experience, with easy access to information they need when they want it.
Meeting these expectations is a significant challenge for organisations. For many, it requires restructuring long-standing operating models, re-engineering business processes and adopting a fundamental shift in mindset to put customer experience at the heart of business decision- making. Download our report to learn more.
The rise of the customer-led economy
Research Methodology
In June 2013 The Economist Intelligence Unit conducted a global survey of 1,300 executives. The respondents are based in Europe (35%), North America (30%) and Asia-Pacific (24%); the remainder are from the Middle East and Africa and Latin America. A total of 90 countries are represented. C-level executives represent 61% of the total number of respondents, who hail from 19 different industries.
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