The latest edition of Ernst & Young's Capital Confidence Barometer, a bi-annual global survey of 1500 executives carried out by the Economist Intelligence Unit, found that corporate confidence is wavering yet again. Only 22% believe the global economic condition is improving – down from 52% in the April 2012 edition. Executives surveyed by the EIU also seemed pessimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings.
Trying to explain why executives are feeling so pessimistic, however, is not so easy. The sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone has abated, the US economy has finally turned a corner and high-growth markets are motoring along. In fact, the EIU projects a mid-year recovery for the global economy overall.
Despite a better outlook for 2013, executives remain unconvinced. In the same survey, 51% think the global downturn will last another one to two years, while 15% think it could go on for more than two. Pip McCrostie, global vice chair for Transaction Advisory Services at Ernst & Young, explains that as a result "companies are refocusing on the basics: cost reduction, performance improvement, capital allocation and targeted organic and inorganic growth initiatives dominate the boardroom agenda".
Perhaps that's the best approach businesses can take for now. Though this year is set to be better for business than 2012, big risks still loom large. The World Economic Forum enumerates what might be keeping investors and executives up at night in their Global Risks 2013 report. Since 2012, the unforeseen consequences of regulation have become a much more vivid risk that could have a significant impact on the economy. Similarly fiscal and labour market imbalances along with soaring inequality have all increased in likelihood over the last year – not to mention the chances of another major systemic financial failure. All things considered, sitting tight on a cushion of cash is probably a smart move for plenty of companies.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU) or any other member of The Economist Group. The Economist Group (including the EIU) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this article or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out in the article.