For the first time since the second world war, global GDP is expected to shrink this year—by 1.8%,according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s global forecast released in June 2009. Worldwide consumption is down, stockmarkets are down, trade is down and employment is down. But according to a survey conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit, and sponsored by SAP, global business conditions are set to improve. The survey, conducted in May 2009, asked 1,032 executives and managers around the world, representing a range of industries and company sizes, for their perceptions of business conditions over the coming 12 months.The results have been used to calculate the Corporate Expectations Barometer, an ongoing index of business perceptions. This report summarises the findings of the initial survey, which forms the baseline index.
Executives who expect conditions to improve over the next 12 months outnumber those who think they will worsen by two to one. However, the level of optimism differs greatly by industry and geography. Among the findings:
- Sectoral differences. Executives in the technology and energy industries are most optimistic about prospects for their industries: those expecting conditions to improve in their sector outnumber those expecting conditions to deteriorate by a margin of four to one. Respondents in healthcare and the public sector are least hopeful, with almost as many expecting conditions to deteriorate as to improve.
- Regional differences. Executives in Asia-Pacifi c who expect business conditions to improve in their region outnumber those who expect conditions to deteriorate by a margin of nearly four to one. But in Latin America and Eastern Europe, more executives expect conditions to deteriorate than to improve over the coming 12 months.
- Best prospects closest to home. Executives are more bullish about prospects for their own companies than they are about prospects for other areas of the economy. Those expecting their company’s prospects to improve over the next 12 months outnumber those expecting conditions to worsen by a margin of more than four to one. But those expecting global business conditions to improve outnumber the pessimists by less than two to one.