In 1605, 13 rebels planned to attack the House of Lords during the State Opening of Parliament. Disillusioned with the treatment of Catholics, their target was the protestant King James the First, and if the Prince of Wales and a few Members of Parliament were also to lose their lives then that would be considered a bonus. While the group was led by Robert Catesby, it is Guy Fawkes that gained notoriety for his part in sneaking into the bowels of parliament to ignite the explosives.
However, Fawkes was betrayed, the plot foiled and he, along with 36 barrels of gunpowder, were discovered before the fuse could be lit.
What would a modern ‘Guy Fawkes’ do differently and would the powder detonate?
Removing the Risk
The Gunpowder Plot, as it’s often called, didn’t fail because of clever detective work, but rather one of the plotter’s morality got the better of him and he sent an anonymous letter to Lord Monteagle. This letter found its way to the King and an order was given to search the cellars and the rest, as they say, is history.
The cellar where the powder was stored no longer exists, but politics is still a target for those looking to derail campaigns. Instead of physical risk, attackers can now influence political events in the UK and across the globe with the help of the internet.
One example is the suggestion, albeit unproven, of vote rigging. Reports have emerged that a US voting systems manufacturer was hacked in the weeks leading up to the 2016 presidential election. The US Department of Homeland Security has stated there is no evidence any votes were changed. During the DEF CON 25 hacking conference, programming and machinery used in US elections were placed in the Voting Village and, by the end of the event, every piece was effectively breached in some manner.
A further concern is the integrity of the voter database. Reports have emerged of citizens that were registered to vote in more than one state, or that the names of deceased individuals were being used. There is also concern that the database itself could be targeted by hackers and the data violated with reports of voter-data exposures experienced in Mexico, the Philippines and even the entire US voter database left vulnerable due to a server misconfiguration.
The growing phenomenon of ‘fake news’ is another gunpowder barrel placed under the foundations of our democracy. Elections around the world, the UK’s Brexit referendum, and numerous other political votes, are believed to have been affected by misinformation being spread via social media. There is such concern of this perceived trend, and its effect on politics, that the UK’s Culture, Media and Sport Committee are looking at ways to respond. In recent weeks, Facebook and Twitter have both said that they will act quicker to remove instances of fake reports, and flag disputed stories in users’ newsfeeds. Twitter also recently announced that the company will require the disclosure of who is paying for political advertisements.
It is also feared that social bots – pieces of software that perform automated tasks – could also impact political campaigns. Research from Oxford, the University of Southern California, and several other universities, shows that bots could be used to make politicians and political ideas appear more popular than they are, or even to massively scale up attacks upon the opposition. There are now concerns that these were used on social media to sway voter opinion by duping trending algorithms and even spreading fake news. There is a train of thought amongst technology experts that bots could become more persuasive, emotional and even personalised which could mean that they not only disseminate ‘fake news’ but could also converse with humans to manipulate emotions.
Restoring Political Integrity
There is firm evidence that cyber insecurities are negatively impacting politics, particularly ahead of key decisions. If we’re to restore integrity in the democratic process then this needs to be addressed urgently.
Regarding the machines themselves, older and outdated machines must be updated or decommissioned entirely. As hackers at DEF CON proved, the Diebold Express-pollbook could be compromised via the openSSL vulnerability CVE-2011-4109, so if the device can’t be upgraded then it must be dumped. Similarly, there must be an ongoing patch management program for machines to ensure any issues that could be leveraged for misuse are addressed.
While currently devices aren’t internet-enabled, this is a feature many are looking to adopt. If connectivity is added, then security must be considered from the outset and built in, rather than bolted on.
Voting device manufacturers should support external peer review of the code running on machines collecting and collating the votes, ensuring weaknesses that could be targeted are addressed to maintain the integrity of the political process.
Government agencies are under extraordinary pressure to maintain constant vigilance against cyber threats and attacks. By establishing robust information security defences, while demonstrating compliance with numerous regulations and standards, hacking attempts can be thwarted but also accusations of misconduct can be addressed.
With the interconnected nature of the world we live in today and the reliance on technology in every aspect of our lives, arguably the most effective weapon for the 21st century version of Guy Fawkes would more likely be carefully crafted lines of code rather than barrels packed with gunpowder. Voting machines reporting falsely could unseat a legitimate government more effectively, and fake news influence the thoughts of a nation more widely than the rebels could have accomplished in 1605, no matter how many barrels they placed in a cellar.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU) or any other member of The Economist Group. The Economist Group (including the EIU) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this article or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out in the article.