Technology & Innovation

Agent of change

March 20, 2012

Global

March 20, 2012

Global
Our Editors

The Economist Intelligence Unit

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Expert views of how technology changes will impact on organisations between now and 2020

Report Summary

Agent of change: The future of technology disruption in business, is an Economist Intelligence Unit white paper, sponsored by Ricoh. The report reviews the impact that technology developments will have over the next decade on various aspects of business, including organisational structures, jobs and the workplace, customer interactions, and business models themselves. The Economist Intelligence Unit bears sole responsibility for the content of the report and this executive summary. The findings do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsor.

If one were to ask corporate leaders to list the “megatrends” that are shaping the business world of tomorrow, three are likely to top most lists. One is the accelerating shift in economic power from West to East. Another is financial market instability and recession, at least for those in the world’s more developed economies. The third is technological progress. Of these three, the last is likely to have the most direct impact on how businesses operate and how they are organised.

As difficult as the task is, business leaders and their teams must deploy their crystal balls and think ahead about the types of changes that may be wrought by technology-led innovation. The past two decades are littered with examples of businesses that have guessed wrong about a technology—and the uses to which it can be put—and have paid the price with reduced market performance or, in many cases, disappearance from the scene altogether.  

This report aims to assist management teams in this process by synthesising different views of how technology changes will impact on organisations in the period between now and 2020. It is based on in-depth discussions conducted with several prominent business and technology thinkers as well as other senior business leaders from across different industries. The Economist Intelligence Unit also canvassed a group of over 500 senior executives and other managers from across the world on their expectations of technology-led change in the years ahead.  

The opinions expressed by this eminent group are certainly not unanimous, as is to be expected. But there is a large degree of consensus on several of the major implications of technology development for the business world.

Foremost among them is the view that technology disruption will continue, and is likely to accelerate, in the decade ahead, confounding the beliefs of some that innovation and disruption are slowing. New business models will emerge on the back of technology advances, and organisational structures and the nature of many jobs will change. Not all will prosper, however: nearly four in ten survey respondents worry that their organisations will not keep pace with technology change and will lose their competitive edge.

Other predictions put forward by our experts and practitioners include the following:

  • Few industries will remain unchanged by technology disruption. Six out of ten business leaders agree that their main vertical market
    will bear little resemblance in 2020 to how it looks today. Media and entertainment, banking and telecommunications top the list of industries thought most likely to converge with another in the next decade. One in ten respondents fear that their organisation will disappear altogether.
  • For those who can master it, "big data" will become a business of its own. Firms already collect vastly more data than they did a decade ago, and new sources—from smart meters to smartphones—will add much more data to this flow. New or more advanced business models based on specialist analytics services are likely to emerge as a result. The European Commission estimates that government data alone could add some €40bn (US$55bn) a year to the European economy by stimulating the growth of new information services.
  • Mid-size companies will be less common in 2020, not least as micro-entrepreneurs proliferate. Technology advances will support a rise in micro-entrepreneurs in the decade ahead, and will enable these tiny businesses to act like far larger ones. This has direct implications for mid-size companies, which will increasingly need to choose whether to become larger to compete on scale, or smaller to compete on speed. Many will face this decision in the years ahead.
  • The importance of middle managers, too, will diminish. Meanwhile, greater analytics capabilities and other technologies will enable organisations to devolve far more decision-making authority to managers and employees at the periphery. Notwithstanding challenges relating to compliance and other areas, nearly two-thirds (63%) of those polled see this happening, which in turn will allow many to say goodbye to the generalist middle manager of old. This will be part of a wider shift towards flatter, more meritocratic corporate structures, egged on by the spread of younger generations in the workforce.
  • Job growth may be increasingly decoupled from economic growth owing to automation. At the very least, it is becoming clearer that the productivity gains from technology are allowing firms to create more output from less input, as some experts argue. This is a triumph for business, but will create a stark challenge for job creation. Indeed, the technology advancement to come will place a wider range of jobs than ever under the threat of displacement. The very same trends, however, will also create numerous new occupations that do not exist today.
  • As transactions are automated and collaboration becomes more virtual, the purpose of physical stores and offices will change. Just as banking transactions are now largely automated, with bank branches becoming more consultative spaces, so too will many other customer-facing physical premises. For knowledge workers, meanwhile, a hybrid working pattern will deepen, with more working from home, while offices instead evolve into spaces for networking and meeting.
  • Thanks to powerful personalisation technologies, customer co-creation will become a major source of innovation. Indeed, one of the most striking findings of this survey is the sharp rise in the role of the customer in generating new ideas. By 2020, customers are expected to overtake in-house research and development (R&D) as the primary source of new product and service ideas. Respondents also believe that customers will by then be nearly as important a source of ideas for business process improvement as their own employees.
  • The organisation of 2020 will be more transparent than ever before. Firms will find it increasingly hard to hide poor service, high pricing or unpopular practices, as technology makes them more visible to end-consumers. Just as social media aided political protests around the world in 2011, so too will it allow consumers to put firms in the spotlight. In the austere decade that lies ahead, firms will need to behave better than ever, or risk a consumer backlash.

Although the next decade will be marked by extensive technology-led change, two constants will remain. One is that technologies by themselves will not bring about improvements in models or operations; for this, the business processes being powered by technology must also undergo change. The other is that new technologies and processes will only be as effective as the people who use them. Failure to appreciate the cultural obstacles to technology-led change will remain a recipe for falling behind.

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