Technology & Innovation

To invest or not to invest

November 01, 2009

Global

November 01, 2009

Global
Anonymous Writer

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An Economist Intelligence Unit report, sponsored by Oracle

This report from the Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by Oracle looks at 17 countries in the region in terms of how the global economic slowdown has affected their digital development plans. It considers the effect of the slowdown on governments' ICT budgets, areas that are being focused on—and why—and the implications of current activities for future development. It builds on a programme of desk research into countries' ICT policies and a series of interviews with government officials, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and other ICT experts.

The key findings of this report are highlighted below.

The crisis has reduced governments' formal ICT spending. Unlike large countries including the US, the UK and China, most CEE countries have been cautious about initiating massive stimulus spending packages. Where CEE stimulus programmes exist, they are unlikely to include significant ICT elements. On the contrary, most CEE governments expect to rein in formal ICT spending in 2009-10, although there are some notable exceptions.

CEE countries are now finding other ways to move digitalisation projects forward. Activity throughout the region has shifted more to projects that do not necessarily require new budgetary allocations. Instead, governments are using existing budgets to introduce ICT upgrades that do not require massive spending, such as improvements in the way agencies function. For example, governments are introducing e-accounting programmes to reduce paperwork, increase transparency in government record-keeping and improve workflow processing. Poland and Russia are among the leaders in launching ambitious e-administration strategies. Similarly, the Czech Republic is pushing ahead with an e-Treasury initiative to be launched in 2011. E-administration projects ould in the future also provide a basis for other electronically based government services.

The focus is on e-administration and e-public service projects with near-term paybacks. In addition to not requiring formal new budget allocations, such projects have the advantage of offering cost savings in the short term, by reducing government paperwork. The above-mentioned Czech e-Treasury project, for example, is expected to save €377m each year beginning with the year of launch. Several governments are also looking into issuing electronic ID cards to enable online access to government services, which would cut paperwork and other administrative costs.

Universal, and particularly rural, access is an important current focus. Although budget funds are currently scarce, governments are not losing sight of the long-term goal of making digital access available universally, including to citizens in remote areas. The motivations are to promote economic development and job creation in rural regions; to give rural residents the same access to online government services as urban residents; and to improve the efficiency of telecommunications and broadband networks by maximising their reach. The funding for such projects tends to come from EU regional development funds rather than from national budgets. EU funding is currently focused on rural broadband access in a number of CEE countries.

Although EU funding is crucial, securing and using those funds requires effort. The EU is the main financial pillar supporting the region's digital development. CEE countries that belong to the EU or are close to membership (and therefore are eligible for EU support) tend to rely more on EU funds than on their own resources to upgrade ICT infrastructure and services. Indeed, without EU funds, digital progress in countries such as Latvia and Lithuania would be likely to grind to a halt. Even Slovenia, one of the richest CEE countries, is slashing its ICT budget in favour of absorbing more EU funds. That said, not all CEE recipients are able to direct the EU funds to useful projects. Governments that reduce their spending on ICT projects must still keep their ICT development planning up to date in order to keep the EU funds flowing in.

Political instability in some countries is slowing progress towards long-range goals. Political upheaval is a typical aftershock of financial crises, and this one is no exception. In CEE, this is creating a divide between governments that have the political capital to work towards long-term ICT plans and those that are forced to focus on short-term priorities. There are exceptions, however, which show that public support for digitalisation can overcome political instability. Estonia, whose governing coalition is somewhat unstable and whose GDP is expected to contract by 13% this year, is nonetheless keeping its ICT programme on track, owing to strong public backing.

CEE governments' ICT reactions to the financial crisis fall into three categories. The impact of the financial crisis of 2008-09 on governments' ICT spending levels and priorities varies across the CEE region. But countries' reactions generally fall into three groups:

  • Go full steam ahead: Countries pressing ahead with ICT strategies despite difficult economic times are Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey.
  • Change tack: Countries changing the direction of ICT programmes, generally shifting emphasis from high-cost, long-term projects to administratively oriented projects with shorter-term paybacks, are the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania.
  • Throw out the anchor and wait out the storm: Countries reacting to the crisis by dramatically reducing ICT funding are Albania, Bosnia and Hercegovina and Ukraine.

 

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