Technology & Innovation

Beyond Cash: China’s Emerging Payments Market

June 15, 2007

Asia

June 15, 2007

Asia
Our Editors

The Economist Intelligence Unit

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Beyond Cash: China’s Emerging Payments Market is an in-depth review of the burgeoning payments market in China

As China’s economy continues its robust expansion, and as its banking sector finally opens up to foreign competition, the demand for credit is taking off. Local banks have ramped up their operations for the last three or four years in preparation for increased competition from foreign rivals. As their efforts bear fruit, the potential for China’s payment cards market has never looked better.

Nowhere is this more so than in China’s emerging market for debit and credit cards. With more than 200m new cards issued last year alone, China’s total number of plastic cards broke though the one billion mark in 2006, with no sign of the pace abating. While a relatively tiny portion of this total—some 50 million—are currently credit cards, growth rates for the sector (both in terms of spending and transaction volumes) are now much higher than for the mass-market debit cards that form the bulk of cards in circulation. No surprise, then, that foreign banks are now eyeing this space for opportunity.

The main findings of our research are as follows:

  • Retail banks are very bullish on consumer banking in general—and credit cards in particular... For many of the retail banks surveyed for this report, credit cards are the main priority. When asked what products they believe hold the greatest prospects for China’s personal banking industry, retail bankers were most optimistic about credit cards and bank accounts. Fifty-fivepercent of study respondents believe the prospects for these consumer banking products are ‘highly promising’ over the next three years. Debit cards are seen as the next most promising item (45%), although these are directly linked to the prospects for basic bank accounts, followed by wealth and investment management (40%). In fact, respondents report overwhelmingly positive views for all aspects of the consumer banking sector.
  •  ...But the outlook for profits is less certain. When it comes to profits in the credit card market, our survey respondents are less confident. Forty-three percent agree that it would be difficult to make a profit in the credit card market over the next three years, compared with 36% who remain uncertain and just 21% who believe it is possible. The key issue is tough competition for customers between local banks growing their market share and foreign rivals trying to establish a beach head in China. This competition inevitably leads to lower card fees, which keeps earnings low (or negative). In addition, banks are grappling with low rates of revolving credit on cards, resulting from a cultural aversion to accruing debt, together with low fees and interest rates that issuers are allowed to levy on merchants and card users.
  • Infrastructure is key to growth in the cards market. According to the executives surveyed for this report, improving infrastructure – encompassing both merchants and ATMs—will play the biggest role in encouraging the increased acceptance of card payments in China. Fully 83% of retail bankers polled chose this as an essential requirement. This component scores far ahead of any other criteria, for example better collaboration between key stakeholders such as banks and payment processors (48%) or publicity campaigns (33%). When asked what the Chinese market needs to supporta payments infrastructure, half of the survey respondents selected better availability of consumer credit-history data.
  • Merchant acquisition is a major hurdle. Convincing merchants to accept credit cards is a major challenge for banks. Eight out of ten retail bankers polled for this report say that local retailers’ preference for cash is either a ‘very significant’ or ‘significant’ barrier in operating cards and payment services. In part, this is because retailers don’t yet feel much pressure from customers to provide payment card facilities in a society where cash is traditionally preferred.
  • Despite an opening financial market, much risk remains. More than half (53%) of bankers polled for this report selected political risk, relating to policy and regulation, as the biggest existing or potential risk associated with their firm’soperations in China. Retail bankers in particular listed licensing risk (chosen by 43%) as a major concern, second only to political risk, highlighting the difficulties associated with getting permission to expand into new regions or markets. Along with this, 41% of the respondents expressed a general concern about the outlook for China’s banking industry.

Much work needs to be done to promote a plastic card payment culture in China. More than anything else, a more extensive card network and infrastructure must be rolled out to promote consumer usage. Along with this, databases of consumers’ credit and transaction histories require expansion. In addition, Chinese consumers must be encouraged to make the switch from cash-based transactions to plastic cards. Despite these challenges, growth is already strong. And in cities such as Beijing, efforts to prepare for the 2008 Summer Olympic Games will help create an environment that supports card payments. Although foreign banks entering the market will have their work cut out, the opportunity is simply too big to ignore.

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