Economic Development

Evolving fortunes

May 08, 2008

Global

May 08, 2008

Global
Monica Woodley

Editorial director, EMEA

Monica is editorial director for The Economist Intelligence Unit's thought leadership division in EMEA. As such, she manages a team of editors across the region who produce bespoke research programmes for a range of clients. In her five years with the Economist Group, she personally has managed research programmes for companies such as Barclays, BlackRock, State Street, BNY Mellon, Goldman Sachs, Mastercard, EY, Deloitte and PwC, on topics ranging from the impact of financial regulation, to the development of innovation ecosystems, to how consumer demand is driving retail innovation.

Monica regularly chairs and presents at Economist conferences, such as Bellwether Europe, the Insurance Summit and the Future of Banking, as well as third-party events such as the Globes Israel Business Conference, the UN Annual Forum on Business and Human Rights and the Geneva Association General Assembly. Prior to joining The Economist Group, Monica was a financial journalist specialising in wealth and asset management at the Financial Times, Euromoney and Incisive Media. She has a master’s degree in politics from Georgetown University and holds the Certificate of Financial Planning.

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Evolving fortunes is a Barclays Wealth report, written in cooperation with the Economist Intelligence Unit.

In the coming decade, the so-called ‘BRIC countries’ (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are expected to make the most significant wealth gains in our wealth forecast of 50 countries.

In 2007, the countries in the study are ranked in order of overall wealth held by the domestic sector in US dollars. But, only one of the BRICs, China, makes the top 10 of our Household Wealth Index. Looking ahead to 2017, however, China leaps from seventh to third place, and is joined in the top 10 by India. Additionally, Russia and Brazil both experience considerable growth, moving respectively from 19th to 11th and 15th to 12th position.

Leapfrogging emerging markets displace other, more developed economies.

The rise in the rankings of a number of key emerging markets in our Household Wealth Index inevitably displaces several more developed countries. These countries will not necessarily become less wealthy over the coming decade – it is largely the sheer economic power of leading emerging markets that causes them to be leapfrogged. Some of the countries affected by this trend include Australia, which falls from 10th to 16th place, South Korea, which falls from 12th to 15th, and Portugal, which falls from 25th to 34th.

By 2017, there will be 12 countries with one million US$ millionaire households.

In 2007, there were seven countries around the world that contained more than one million millionaire households: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US – the countries of the G7.

During the next decade, they will be joined by five new countries: Spain, the Netherlands, Australia, Taiwan and South Korea. Despite their considerable progress in wealth terms over this period, emerging markets are some way behind according to this measure. Brazil ranks highest in 16th place, with 675,000 millionaire households in 2017.

The hotspots of highest wealth density will remain consistent over the next decade.

The countries with the highest percentages of dollar millionaires in the study tend to be small, densely populated financial centres, such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Switzerland. There is no change at the top of the table between now and 2017.

Countries rising through the ranks in terms of density of millionaires include Japan, Denmark and the Netherlands. At the other end of the table, Brazil and Turkey are climbing the list, but the density of millionaires in China will remain largely unchanged over the next decade, causing its ranking to fall.

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