Eight months ago, the world trade outlook for 2020 was worse than grim. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) released a report in April forecasting that, in its worst-case scenario, the pandemic could push trade down by as much as 32% by year’s end. It was a striking figure, but also within the bounds of reason. Most of the world’s major economies were in lockdowns of varying severity, international travel had come to an almost complete stop and supply chains for essential goods appeared on the edge of collapse.
However, data covering the first few months of the second half of year show the fall off lessening, and a recovery appears underway.1 As of December 2020, the WTO forecasts a 9.2% annual decline in trade, still a substantial drop, and slightly better than the current EIU forecast of a 10.6% fall, but far from the disaster once feared.
Results of our global survey of 800 senior executives, sponsored by DP World, also support this relative optimism. Fielded in October and November 2020, we asked executives across a range of industries and regions about the pandemic’s effects on trade and their business—including changes in their international sales revenue in the first half of 2020 compared to 2019 (see below). It is a supplement to a 3,000-respondent survey fielded over the first quarter of 2020, during the initial stages of the pandemic.
This brief summarises the most recent survey. In early 2021, we will release a series of papers that dive deeper into results from both surveys, highlighting significant sectoral and regional findings.
