Energy systems are like trees. You don't notice the changes from day to day, but over ten or twenty years, the changes can be amazing. Think back 25 years. Imagine Germany without nuclear power, Belgium and France without coal production, North Sea oil and gas in decline. Now imagine what the next 25 years could bring.
Thinking about energy means thinking long term. Within 20 years, China's coal imports could quintuple, its oil imports could triple, and its gas imports could increase by a factor of fourteen. The EU needs to take its energy security very seriously indeed.
Our energy systems in Europe were largely conceived 50 years ago. They now need large-scale modernisation. The question is: do we build more of the same; or do we construct modern, intelligent networks which can substantially reduce our energy needs and imports, while helping us to compete internationally?
The case for new systems and new networks is compelling. Within just a few years, we need to generate more than one third of our power from renewable sources of electricity. We need to more than double our energy efficiency efforts. We have to integrate the energy market across Europe.
But the euro crisis, high public deficits and recession have checked investment in the energy sector, including in renewables. The Commission's Energy Roadmap 2050 sets out to reassure the investment community that we are sticking to low-carbon policies for the longer term. It demonstrates that energy transformation is not only technically feasible, but also economically beneficial. In fact, all Roadmap scenarios achieve decarbonisation with little difference in overall cost or security of supply compared with the status quo.
The policies which work in the Roadmap are not new: energy efficiency and renewable energy, in combination with technology advancements for gas and coal (CCS), new grid structures and open energy markets. With much more renewable power generated locally for local needs, individual consumers can make a real difference, taking their energy production and consumption into their own hands. Through helping them to use energy better, it will remain affordable despite the growing demand worldwide for energy.
European energy policies not only help our security and environment. They open up new business and skills opportunities to large parts of our population. They help create a stronger and more stable economy, less exposed to the volatility of international oil prices.
Through its energy policies, Europe must change the lives of everyone for the better. We have had about fifty years of surplus energy, at affordable prices, and we have based our lifestyle and economy on this assumption. But we are entering a different period, where global energy prices are higher, developing countries are becoming major energy importers and our environment is under threat. I would like to see Europe come closer together in energy, to invest in its longer term energy security and internal market, use resources more efficiently and improve the quality of life for all. I am sure I am not the only one.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU) or any other member of The Economist Group. The Economist Group (including the EIU) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this article or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out in the article.
