Energy

Managing the risk in renewable energy

November 29, 2011

Australasia, Europe, North America

November 29, 2011

Australasia, Europe, North America
Aviva Freudmann

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Aviva has nearly 40 years of experience as a journalist, researcher and editor covering a variety of industries, including healthcare, financial services, insurance and risk management, transport, logistics, energy and environmental protection.

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'Managing the risk in renewable energy' is an Economist Intelligence Unit report, sponsored by Swiss Re.

In 2010 global investment in new renewable energy projects exceeded investment in new fossil fuelfired plants for the first time, largely driven by a mix of renewable energy incentives and political pressure to invest in less emission-intensive energy production. Yet although investments in renewable energy plants are growing, so are the risks. Political/regulatory risk and financial risk are on the rise against a backdrop of macro-economic uncertainty, while weather-related volume risk is rising up the agenda as investments in offshore wind farms accelerate. At the same time, the availability of risk management resources—including risk expertise, industry data and insurance cover—in the renewable energy sector remains limited, potentially restricting the sector’s access to development capital.

Investment in renewable energy projects is now outpacing investment in new fossil fuel-powered generation capacity, according to data from the United Nations Environment Programme and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. These data indicate that the level of investment in renewable energy projects surged by 32% in 2010, largely driven by a combination of incentives to invest in renewable energy and political pressure to reduce emissions. For the growing volume of planned renewable energy developments, risk management is a critical element in securing project
financing.

As investments in renewable energy plants grow, so too do the risks inherent in owning, building and operating such plants. In particular, political and regulatory risk and financial risk are becoming acute, as the macroeconomic outlook for many countries deteriorates. In addition, weather-related volume risk is particularly acute as investments in wind farms continue to expand. Yet, the risk management resources—including industry expertise, operating data and specialised risk transfer products—available to the renewable energy sector remain, in some respects, limited. This raises important questions over the future development of the renewable energy sector worldwide.

This paper, based on a survey of over 280 senior executives—as well as 15 in-depth interviews with renewable energy executives, investors and other industry experts—documents the risk management challenges that the renewable energy industry must confront. The research examines the most significant risks facing renewable energy projects; the ways that industry executives are managing and reducing these risks; and the instruments they are using to transfer some of the remaining risks.

The key findings of the research are highlighted below.

  • The significance of renewable energy investment is growing strongly.
    Although 33% of survey respondents say that renewable energy is highly significant for their business strategy today, 61% expect this to be the case in three years’ time. Almost one-half (46%) of respondents expect annual growth in their firms’ renewable energy investments of over 15%. Projects are growing in scale and complexity, most notably in the area of offshore wind.
  • The early stages of renewable energy projects are the most risky—especially financing.
    Financial risk is the most significant risk associated with renewable energy projects, highlighted by 76% of respondents. Other significant risks include political and regulatory risk (flagged by 62%), and weather-related volume risk (mentioned by 66% of respondents involved in wind power). These risks are heightened by the gloomy macroeconomic outlook for many countries.
  • The renewable energy sector faces significant obstacles in managing its risks.
    Although 70% of respondents say they are successful in identifying risks, fewer say they are successful at mitigating and transferring risks—61% and 50% respectively. Obstacles to more effective risk management include restricted availability of industry data and of suitable risk transfer mechanisms. On the plus side, scale appears to offer larger power companies advantages in managing the risks associated with renewable energy plants.
  • Renewable power executives rely on diversification to mitigate risk.
    Numerous industry executives interviewed for this research point to diversification across geographies and technologies as the single most powerful tool to mitigate regulatory risk and weather-related volume risk. In addition, 55% of respondents say they mitigate operational risk by relying on proven technologies in their renewable energy developments.
  • Insurance is the most common mechanism to transfer risk to third parties.
    A total of 60% of respondents use insurance policies to transfer risk to third parties, making it the most common mechanism to transfer risk. The use of alternative risk transfer mechanisms such as weatherbased financial derivatives appears to be growing, however, and the renewable energy sector also makes heavy use of service contracts with hardware suppliers to transfer operational risk. But some renewable energy executives say they retain regulatory and weather-related volume risk because they see few cost-effective alternatives.
  • The renewable energy sector expects to use a broader range of risk transfer products in the future.
    Over the next three years, 38% of executives expect to make additional use of financial derivatives to transfer risk, and 34% expect to make additional use of special purpose vehicles. Just over one-half (55%) expect to make additional use of insurance. Renewable energy executives are expecting wider availability of more-standardised products, notably weather derivatives, insurance and hedging contracts.

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