Economic Development

GCC trade and investment flows

May 09, 2011

Global

May 09, 2011

Global
Anonymous Writer

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A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit, sponsored by Falcon & Associates

This report explores the changing and growing economic relationships between the GCC and emerging markets. It lays out the key findings of extensive research into trade and investment flows between the GCC and different emerging-market regions: Asia; Africa; the Middle East; Latin America; and Eastern Europe/CIS. It also discusses the implications of the burgeoning interest in emerging markets for the region’s traditional economic partners in the OECD. 

Emerging markets will drive global growth in the years ahead: We forecast that around two-thirds of the world's economic growth will be generated by emerging markets in the next five years. This means that by 2015 emerging markets are projected to account for 41% of global GDP, compared to an estimated 31% in 2011.

The increasing economic importance of India and China and the economic emergence of sub-Saharan Africa present massive opportunities for the GCC. Multinationals operating in the MiddleEast already use the GCC as a base for their regional operations, but the GCC also has opportunities further to develop as a base for their expanding operations in Africa and South Asia. However, the GCC will also face competition from rival hubs and will need to keep improving if it is to maintain its competitive edge. There is a need further to strengthen the labour market, including the local skills base, and the regulatory environment.

Asia will be the most important emerging-market region for the GCC. This is partly a story aboutrising demand for oil: we forecast that oil consumption in Asia will grow by 4.4% per year on average over the next five years, while the OECD's demand is expected to plateau. But it is not just an energy story. Growth in China and India is now moving into a new phase, from being focused on exports to a greater focus on domestic demand. Rising consumption in Asia, fuelled partly by an expanding middle class, will produce a host of new opportunities for trade. Tourism, one of the GCC's competitive strengths, is already benefiting from the growing Chinese middle class.

Most of our interviewees expressed certainty that China would be the GCC's most importanteconomic partner by 2020, although India's historical and cultural links with the region will alsostand it in good stead. Nonetheless, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and India will remain important as providers of technology and know-how for the GCC states. The GCC states already have an abundance of capital; in general, their main reason to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) is for the associated transfers of technology.

Agriculture is a promising sector in Africa: As most GCC countries import the bulk of their foodrequirements, Africa's abundance of arable land presents an opportunity for the GCC to implement food security strategies through the acquisition of land for export-oriented farming. However, GCC investors need to be aware of legal and political risk in this area.

In Asia and some parts of the Middle East, GCC investment will be channelled into infrastructure development: Large populations and a shortage of capital in Asia provide an ideal opportunity for the GCC to fill the gap. Tourism and telecommunications, in particular, will be attractive industries for GCC investment. In the Middle East, growth in Iraq has put a strain on the poor infrastructure and there are significant opportunities to invest in the region, particularly in the housing sector.

Overall, the GCC's investments in emerging markets are likely to focus on tried and testedareas of competitive strength, chiefly
energy and services industries and sectors, such as portoperations, tourism, retail, financial services (especially sharia-compliant finance) and telecoms. Financial investments will also go into agriculture, minerals and real estate in a broad range of emerging markets.

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