Report Summary
The GCC in 2020 II: The gulf and its people is a white paper written by the Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority. The findings and views expressed in this briefing paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the QFC Authority, which has sponsored this publication in the interest of promoting informed debate. The Economist Intelligence Unit bears sole responsibility for the content of the report. The author was Jane Kinninmont and the editor was Aviva Freudmann.
Executive Summary
This report is the second in a series that examines the likely themes in the development of the GCC economies to 2020. The first report predicted that the GCC will grow in importance as an economic and trading hub, making it an increasingly important trading partner as well as investor in Asia and Africa. This second report takes a closer look at the population mix of the GCC and concludes that demographic trends, while presenting some major challenges, will support the region's increasingly pivotal role in the global economy. Future reports will consider the prospects for diversification into non-hydrocarbons industries, as well as food, water and power security in the region. Key findings of the second phase of our research on the GCC and its people are highlighted below.
The GCC has one of the fastest-growing populations in the world. By 2020 this population is forecast to increase by one-third, to 53m people. The vast majority will be under 25 years of age. The rapid growth and the relative youth of the population present serious challenges as well as major opportunities.
The robust population growth, together with the region's affluence and its abundant natural resources, point to continued strong market demand, which in turn helps to make the GCC countries attractive prospects for foreign investors. At the same time, the region's long-term economic growth will depend critically on the success of efforts to educate and employ the rapidly expanding young population.
Rapid population growth will remain concentrated in cities. This will put pressure on public services, infrastructure and housing in urban centres. It will also create a large pool of labour that may be difficult to absorb into the private sector, owing to mismatches not only of skills, but also of expectations of wages and working conditions. Ongoing education reforms will help, but will not solve these mismatches within the next ten years.
The population will remain very young over the forecast period, in contrast to the ageing populations of the US and western Europe. The proportion of the population under 15 years of age will drop from 29% in 2008 to 24% in 2020, but will remain substantial. The large size of the young population, which has increasing access to education, the international media and new technologies, suggests that social attitudes and norms may change fast.
The recent trend of more women entering the labour force is likely to continue, buttressed by increased investment in educating women for jobs, a change in social attitudes and the creation of role models for a new generation of working women. Businesses will face pressure to adapt to this trend, but will not necessarily use the same models seen in the West.
Based on a simple extrapolation from the trends of the past five years, nationals could become a minority of the GCC population by 2021. Under the Economist Intelligence Unit's core scenario, however, nationals are likely to remain in the majority, as net immigration slows compared to its rate during the recent oil boom. Despite the slowdown, net immigration will remain strongly positive, as the private sector remains heavily dependent on expatriate labour. The gaps of cost and of skills between nationals and expatriates will gradually narrow, but will not close within the next decade.
The rising expatriate population will contribute to economic growth. An expanding pool of skilledprofessionals from overseas will provide a diverse talent pool, which should help to stimulate further economic diversification.
At the same time, GCC countries will face questions about how best to manage immigration, as they face competing pressures from groups that want to protect jobs for nationals and those that want more rights for immigrants. The treatment of foreign workers will become an increasingly important aspect of foreign relations with source countries. The GCC countries are unlikely to pursue a common policy on managing immigration, given the significant differences between the countries in terms of population size and natural resource endowments.
