On December 16, the Federal Reserve sent a strong signal to the world that the US economy is firmly back on track by raising interest rates by a quarter of a point to 0.5%. This was the first rate rise since the Fed drastically cut rates through the financial crisis and recession, finally starting what is expected to be a gradual rise back to normal levels.
Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve Chair, had made clear at the Fed’s last meeting in October that she was confident about the inflation outlook because of strong job numbers, with unemployment down to 5%. Inflation had slowed to 1.3% in the third quarter but the EIU also expects it to rise in 2016, and the Fed needs to get ahead of the curve.
This communication should have meant that markets anticipated the rise. After an initial fall in equity prices in the run-up to the announcement –stemming from problems in the high yield bond market – stocks responded positively to the news. But they were brought back down again because of those continuing high yield bond issues, along with recent weakness in the resources sector and the occurrence of a “quadruple witching” in US markets (the end-of-quarter phenomenon when options and futures contracts expire).
Turbulence was to be expected after seven years of “ZIRP” - zero interest rate policy - and trillions of dollars’ of quantitative easing by the Fed. But what will be the longer-term effects as the Fed continues to raise rates? Other banks are expected to follow, with the Bank of England expected to raise its rates next year (the fourth quarter according to the EIU). Emerging market economies are also watching the rate rise with concern. A stronger US dollar, backed by higher US interest rates, tends to depress emerging market currencies at a time when many are already weak.
What do you think will be the impact on economies and markets in the near future? Our poll asks whether you think the rise will: lead to stock market declines in the US and around the world; boost stock markets in the US and around the world; boost US stock markets but provoke declines globally; lead to stock market declines outside the US but boost US markets; or have no significant effect. We look forward to hearing your views, please vote now.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited (EIU) or any other member of The Economist Group. The Economist Group (including the EIU) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this article or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out in the article.