Scenario planning takes central stage

Nearly 40 years after Royal Dutch Shell first commercialised its use to enable a better understanding of its business at the time of major oil price shocks, scenario planning has become an integral part of the risk management toolkit in many companies. Among our respondents, 72% say that they currently use scenario planning, while a further 19% say that they plan to do so in future.

"Scenario planning helps companies to develop a more complete map of possibilities so that they are able to pick up weak signals on the periphery," says Richard Pascale, an associate fellow at University of Oxford's Saïd Business School. "It's a very helpful exercise to stretch executives beyond the dimensions that they normally focus on and to push them to become more nimble in their response to weak signals as they start to move to the centre."

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